The United States faces a critical vulnerability in its military capabilities, with defence stockpiles of rare earth elements reportedly sufficient for only about two months of sustained operations, according to sources cited by the South China Morning Post and echoed across industry analyses.

The alarming depletion has gained urgency amid the ongoing US-led strikes on Iran, which began on February 28, 2026. Pentagon estimates indicate that the initial days of the campaign alone consumed roughly $5.6 billion in munitions, rapidly drawing down inventories of precision-guided weapons and interceptors that rely heavily on these strategic minerals.

Rare earth elements — such as dysprosium, terbium, neodymium and others — are vital for key defence technologies, including missile guidance systems, fighter jet components, radar arrays, phased-array systems, secure communications and advanced actuators. Without reliable access to these materials, replenishing depleted stocks of systems like THAAD interceptors, Patriot missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles becomes severely constrained, potentially limiting the duration of high-intensity operations.

The shortage stems in large part from China’s near-monopoly on global processing and export of rare earths. Industry assessments suggest Chinese-controlled supply chains feature in more than 75% of US defence platforms. Beijing has periodically imposed export restrictions on dual-use minerals critical to US military contractors, amplifying concerns over supply-chain resilience during extended conflict.

The situation has handed China potential indirect leverage: analysts note that any tightening of exports could influence how long Washington can sustain its campaign against Iran. A high-level meeting on rare earth export policies is reportedly scheduled for next month, adding to the uncertainty.

The Pentagon has responded by urgently seeking fresh domestic and allied supplies of 13 critical minerals (including rare earths), issuing requests to mining companies just before the Iran strikes escalated. The Trump administration has also invested in US-based producers like MP Materials and explored partnerships to build resilient “mine-to-magnet” chains, though scaling to meet defence needs could take years.

As domestic buffers dwindle, attention is shifting toward alternative global sources, including Africa’s substantial untapped reserves. Nations such as Botswana (with a newly announced high-grade rare earth deposit containing all 15 elements plus copper, cobalt, nickel and vanadium), South Africa (rich in manganese, platinum group metals and antimony) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (over 70% of global cobalt) are positioned as strategic options to help diversify away from China-dependent chains.

The two-month stockpile window underscores a broader strategic challenge: prolonged military engagements risk exhausting not just munitions but the foundational materials needed to rebuild them, exposing vulnerabilities in US defence readiness at a time of heightened geopolitical tension.

Accra, Ghana – Ghana is poised to become the first African country to enter into a formal defense and security partnership with the European Union.

The agreement is expected to be signed “in the coming days,” EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas announced on March 9, 2026.

Speaking at the EU’s annual ambassadors’ conference, Kallas highlighted growing global demand for diversified security partnerships amid rising geopolitical risks.

“A growing number of countries around the globe are seeking to diversify their partnerships to manage the heightened risk,” she said, adding that “there are many other interested countries knocking at our door.”

Ghana’s Foreign Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa, addressing the Chatham House think tank in London on the same day, confirmed that the forthcoming pact will centre on counter-terrorism cooperation. The deal forms part of a broader EU strategy to build Security and Defence Partnerships with trusted non-EU nations, following similar arrangements with the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, and a promised agreement with India alongside its recent trade pact.

According to Eurobserver, the EU’s push for these partnerships comes against the backdrop of heightened security challenges—including the war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, US threats to reduce support for NATO’s eastern flank, and recent American statements on Greenland—coupled with domestic pressure to increase European defence capabilities.

To support this agenda, the European Commission under President Ursula von der Leyen launched the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) programme in 2025. SAFE offers up to €150 billion in long-term loans to help EU member states reach the 2% GDP defence spending target, alongside a separate defence procurement framework potentially worth €800 billion. While these initiatives primarily benefit EU countries, the new external partnerships are expected to facilitate joint naval and military missions, interoperability, training, intelligence sharing, and greater access to the EU defence market for partner nations.

Von der Leyen emphasised the importance of global collaboration in her address to EU diplomats:

“Standing on our own feet does not mean standing alone. We also want to work with trusted partners around the world. This is the core idea behind our Security and Defence Partnerships with countries from across the world.”

For Ghana, the agreement marks a significant step in diversifying security partnerships beyond traditional allies and strengthening capacity to address regional threats, particularly terrorism in West Africa. Critics, however, have described such pacts as largely symbolic, noting limited public detail on concrete operational changes or financial commitments.

Ghana’s inclusion underscores the EU’s interest in deepening ties with stable, democratic partners on the African continent to enhance collective security in an uncertain global environment.

ACCRA — The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has announced sharp increases in minimum price floors for petroleum products effective March 16 to March 31, 2026, with diesel recording one of the steepest adjustments in recent years as global oil markets react to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Under the new pricing guidelines, petrol will rise from GH¢10.46 to GH¢11.57 per litre, while diesel climbs from GH¢11.42 to GH¢14.35 per litre—a nearly 26 percent increase for diesel in a single pricing window. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) has also been adjusted upward to GH¢10.67 per kilogram, from GH¢9.38 previously.

The NPA directive, issued to Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) and LPG Marketing Companies (LPGMCs), mandates compliance with the new price floors under the Petroleum Products Pricing Guidelines (PPPG). The quoted prices exclude premiums charged by International Oil Trading Companies, operating margins of Bulk Import, Distribution and Export Companies, and marketers’ and dealers’ margins—meaning consumers will pay significantly more once these additional costs are factored in.

Global Conflict, Local Impact

Industry analysts trace the sharp increases directly to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where the joint US-Israeli conflict with Iran has disrupted global energy markets.

Dr Riverson Oppong, Chief Executive of the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC), warned earlier this month that fuel could reach GH¢17 per litre if the situation persists.

“If by Wednesday things have not come down, we are going to hit around $110 to $120 per barrel,” he said on March 9, noting that crude oil prices have already surged past $108 per barrel.

Duncan Amoah, Executive Secretary of the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC), had projected prices between GH¢14 and GH¢16 per litre in a March 12 interview—projections that now appear conservative given the NPA’s new diesel floor of GH¢14.35 before additional levies.

The conflict has triggered multiple supply-side shocks. Brent crude surged more than 10 percent in early March trading, reaching $80.11 per barrel, with analysts projecting potential climbs to $90 or beyond. Missile strikes have hit OPEC members, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, while attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz—through which 20 percent of global crude passes—have raised concerns about supply route security.

Qatar has reportedly halted natural gas production following bombings, and a major refinery with 550,000 barrels per day capacity has been shut down, further constraining global supply.

Discount Ban Compounds Price Pressure

The price floor increases coincide with the implementation of an NPA directive banning selective fuel discounts, which takes effect on the same date—March 16.

The directive closes a regulatory provision that allowed companies, including GOIL and Star Oil, to offer lower prices at designated stations. From March 16, all OMCs and LPGMCs must charge identical prices across their entire networks, ending the price competition that had moderated pump prices in many urban areas.

Dr Steve Manteaw, a natural resource governance expert, has urged the government to suspend the ban immediately, arguing the timing “is dangerously out of step with a global oil market already rattled by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.”

“This directive ought to be reconsidered in the interest of containing the potential effects of the ongoing Middle East conflict on consumers,” Manteaw said. “In fact, the government should be considering the suspension of some taxes on petroleum products to stem potential price hikes”.

Dr Oppong of COMAC offered a different perspective, insisting the NPA had not scrapped discounting but corrected “a long-standing regulatory error”.

Vulnerability Exposed

The price shocks highlight Ghana’s structural exposure to global oil markets. Dr Oppong noted that Ghana remains a net importer of petroleum products, bringing in more than 60 percent of domestic requirements despite some local production.

“Availability and accessibility may not be a problem for us, but affordability is the big question,” he said.

Benjamin Nsiah, Executive Director of the Centre for Environmental Management and Sustainable Energy (CEMSE), had warned on March 2 that diesel could increase by at least 20 percent if global conditions persisted, noting that international diesel prices had surged from approximately $711–$775 per metric tonne to around $872 per metric tonne—a nearly 30 percent increase.

The cedi’s recent marginal appreciation against the dollar—from GH¢11.09 to GH¢11.04—provided limited cushioning but proved insufficient to offset the scale of global price movements.

Policy Options and Consumer Impact

Industry stakeholders are calling for government intervention to cushion consumers. Dr Oppong urged consideration of temporary tax relief measures, including suspension or reduction of the Price Stabilisation and Recovery Levy (PSRL).

“If prices increase, the government should consider removing certain levies or implementing measures to ease the burden on consumers,” he said.

Nsiah similarly suggested exploring alternative petroleum supply sources and policy tools including the possible removal of the GH¢1 levy on fuel and the use of auction policies to stabilize prices.

The new price floors mean no OMC or LPGMC may sell below approved levels during this window. Companies currently selling below these thresholds must adjust upward immediately to comply.

With additional levies, margins and operational charges yet to be factored in, consumers face substantially higher pump prices starting March 16. The ripple effects are expected to extend beyond motorists to transport fares, food costs and general inflation, given fuel’s central role in Ghana’s economy.

It remains unclear whether competition among OMCs will lead some to absorb portions of the cost increases, though the new discount restrictions may limit their flexibility.

The NPA has scheduled meetings with OMCs and LPGMCs to clarify the revised guidelines, but for Ghanaian consumers, the immediate reality is clear: fuel prices are rising sharply, and the end may not yet be in sight.