Africa Watch
Oil, Gas, and the $100 Million Future of the Gulf of Guinea: What’s at Stake in the Ghana-Togo Maritime Dispute
ACCRA/LOMÉ — For nearly a decade, an invisible line beneath the Atlantic Ocean has separated more than just two neighboring countries.
It has separated communities from certainty, investors from opportunity, and two West African nations from the full potential of their shared maritime heritage. Now, with Ghana’s decision to refer the long-standing dispute to international arbitration, that line is about to be drawn—and billions of dollars hang in the balance.
The Ghana-Togo maritime boundary dispute, formally submitted to arbitration under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in February 2026, represents far more than a technical legal disagreement. At its core lies a competition for resources that could transform national economies, reshape regional energy security, and determine the future of the Gulf of Guinea as a hydrocarbon province.
The $100 Million Question
The disputed waters sit within a sedimentary basin believed to hold significant offshore oil and gas reserves—resources that could generate substantial revenues for whichever nation secures sovereignty. Industry experts estimate the potential value of hydrocarbon deposits in the contested zone at sums that could reach into the billions, making the $100 million figure a conservative baseline for what’s ultimately at stake.
“The disputed area lies within a basin known for significant hydrocarbon potential, and both governments see offshore oil and gas as central to economic planning, debt sustainability, and political narratives of development,” notes an analysis from Africa Eye, a regional policy publication.
For Ghana, which has already developed world-class fields like Jubilee and TEN, securing legal certainty over adjacent waters is essential for attracting continued investment in exploration and production. For Togo, which has yet to make a major offshore discovery, the stakes are existential—a favorable ruling could unlock resources that would fundamentally alter the country’s economic trajectory.
The Keta Basin, a sedimentary region extending from southeastern Ghana into the Republic of Togo, has long been identified as a site of untapped hydrocarbon potential. Early geological surveys suggested the presence of oil and gas, but exploration has stalled due to the unresolved boundary and insufficient investment.
A Decade of Failed Negotiations
The dispute’s origins trace to specific flashpoints. In December 2017 and May 2018, Togolese authorities halted two Ghanaian seismic survey vessels conducting deep-sea data acquisition in an area near the border that Ghana considered part of its offshore maritime zone . Togo claimed the vessels were operating in waters within its own claimed area, marking the first significant confrontations in the disagreement.
These incidents occurred shortly after Ghana won its landmark maritime boundary case against Côte d’Ivoire in September 2017 at the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS)—a ruling that provided binding delimitation on Ghana’s western frontier and demonstrated the effectiveness of international adjudication.
Following the 2017-2018 incidents, both countries established a Joint Maritime Boundary Technical Committee comprising technical experts from both sides. They held multiple rounds of discussions, but fundamental differences persisted over delimitation methodology, baseline coordinates, and interpretation of nautical charts. Togo also raised concerns about the presence of Ghanaian naval vessels in contested waters during negotiations.
In 2021, Ghana proposed a formal demarcation line, but Togo rejected it. After eight years of bilateral negotiations without achieving a settlement, Ghana notified Togo in February 2026 of its decision to pursue international arbitration.
The Legal Framework: UNCLOS as Final Arbiter
The arbitration will proceed under UNCLOS, the international treaty that provides the legal framework for maritime boundaries and dispute settlement mechanisms. Ghana’s decision to invoke Annex VII arbitration follows the same legal pathway that proved successful in the Côte d’Ivoire case.
Key provisions guiding the tribunal include:
- Article 15, concerning delimitation of the territorial sea between states with opposite or adjacent coasts
- Articles 74 and 83, requiring states with overlapping exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelf claims to achieve an equitable solution through agreement, taking into account relevant circumstances
The core legal question revolves around methodology: Should the boundary follow a simple equidistance line (the median line between the two coasts), or should it account for broader geographical and historical factors? Ghana’s successful 2017 case against Côte d’Ivoire saw the ITLOS Special Chamber adopt the equidistance method, a precedent that likely influences Accra’s confidence in the current proceedings.
Togo, for its part, has responded with measured dignity. In a communiqué following Ghana’s notification, the Togolese government reaffirmed its “commitment to resolving maritime disputes in accordance with the principles of justice and equity” while stating that any resolution must respect the sovereign rights of both nations.
Beyond Hydrocarbons: Fisheries, Communities, and the Blue Economy

While oil and gas capture headlines, the dispute’s resolution will affect far more than energy companies. The contested waters sustain fishing communities on both sides of the border—communities already pressured by industrial fleets and illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing.
Coastal communities near the Keta Basin have long histories of fishing, spiritual practices, and artisanal livelihoods linked to the ocean. Exclusion from decision-making not only threatens legitimacy but undermines peace. Any future subsea infrastructure—from pipelines to telecommunications cables—will depend on where the boundary ultimately runs.
The arbitration also aligns with Ghana’s Blue Economy strategy, which emphasizes the sustainable exploitation of ocean resources, including fisheries, hydrocarbons, and shipping lanes. Clear boundary delimitation provides legal certainty for investors, enhances resource management, reduces conflict risk, and supports long-term national development planning.
Regional Implications: A Test for West African Governance
Ghana’s decision to escalate the dispute to arbitration arrives at a delicate moment for regional diplomacy. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) was designed to help member states manage tensions before they harden into crises, yet institutional strains and political turbulence in recent years have limited its capacity to sustain sensitive negotiations.
In that context, Ghana’s appeal to a global legal mechanism signals a preference for rules-based adjudication over prolonged regional bargaining—a move that may quietly reshape expectations across West Africa, where other coastal states face overlapping maritime claims of their own.
The outcome will matter well beyond Accra and Lomé. A clear, mutually respected decision could strengthen the case for managing offshore competition through law rather than brinkmanship, while a politicized process could unsettle investment and deepen mistrust at sea.
Both nations remain publicly committed to preserving their relationship throughout the legal process. Ghana’s government stated that it took the step “to avoid an escalation of incidents that have created tensions between some of our institutions and to promote an amicable resolution, thereby contributing to the continued good relations between our two countries” .
Togo similarly stated its dedication to the spirit of good neighborliness, asserting that it remains open to a resolution that respects international law while preserving the fraternal relations between the two states.
The Road Ahead
The arbitration process will require both nations to submit extensive legal, technical, and historical evidence, including hydrographic surveys, historical documentation, and expert analyses. The proceedings could take several years before a final award is delivered.
For Ghana, confidence in legal recourse is rooted in experience. The 2017 case against Côte d’Ivoire showed that structured proceedings and provisional measures can prevent technical disagreements from escalating into security incidents, reinforcing the idea that consistent cartography and historical practice can translate into legal advantage.
For Togo, arbitration offers clarity but also uncertainty. Any ruling will redefine exploration rights, revenue expectations, and maritime enforcement responsibilities—outcomes that will shape the country’s economic future for generations.
As the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea prepares to receive submissions from both nations, one truth remains clear: beneath the waves of the Gulf of Guinea lies not just oil and gas, but the hopes of millions whose lives depend on what happens when two neighbors ask international law to draw a line in the sea.
Africa Watch
As Xenophobic Attacks Rise, Cape Town’s ‘Apartheid Wall’ Draws Accusations of Misaligned Priorities by Black South Africans
A wall against crime or against the poor? As xenophobic attacks rise, critics say Black South Africans are fighting the wrong enemies
CAPE TOWN — A controversial $7 million wall rising along Cape Town’s N2 highway has reignited a painful debate about race, poverty, and belonging in post-apartheid South Africa.
For a growing number of pan-African voices, the structure is a symptom of something deeper: a dangerous misalignment of priorities among black South Africans, who are simultaneously turning violent against fellow African immigrants while a resurgent settler class consolidates power.
The nearly 9-kilometer “N2 Edge” safety barrier, branded by critics as an “apartheid wall,” is designed to separate the highway leading from Cape Town International Airport from the sprawling, impoverished black townships of Nyanga and surrounding settlements. The route has long been known as the “N2 hell run” due to frequent hijackings, smash-and-grab ambushes, and occasional deadly attacks on motorists.
City officials, led by the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA), defend the R114 million (approximately $7 million) project as a necessary crime-fighting measure. Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis said the road is used by “hundreds of thousands of people a day,” many of them local commuters who feel unsafe.
A woman was fatally stabbed at a traffic light just off the highway after leaving the airport complex in December 2025, an incident that accelerated the project’s approval.
But former anti-apartheid activist and cleric Allan Boesak has called the wall an attempt to “hide the poor.”
“They are trying to build a wall behind which they are trying to hide the poor,” Boesak said at a recent Ramadan community gathering. “They are trying to hide the fact that there is indeed a black Cape Town and a white Cape Town – a privileged Cape Town and a privileged-deprived Cape Town.”
A Wave of Xenophobic Violence
The wall controversy comes amid a resurgence of xenophobic and Afrophobic attacks across South Africa. In recent months, immigrants from Ghana, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, and other African nations have been assaulted, robbed, and driven from their homes in townships near Johannesburg, Durban, and Cape Town (as shown in many viral videos inundating social media feeds).
Shops owned by foreign nationals have been looted, and at least seven people have been killed in xenophobic mob attacks since the beginning of the year, according to civil society monitors.
South African police have made dozens of arrests, but community leaders say the violence reflects deep-seated resentment over unemployment, housing shortages, and crime, frustrations that are frequently misdirected at fellow Africans.
One pro-African unity commentator, whose analysis has circulated widely in response to the recent violence, argues that black South Africans are being manipulated by a familiar colonial playbook.
“The settler class has always been unified,” the commentator, Shannel R Oliver wrote. “When will Africa be?”
The U.S.-based commentator pointed to historical precedents:
“The Belgians turned the Hutu against the Tutsi. The British divided the Igbo and the Yoruba, the Fante and the Ashanti — specifically to crush unified African resistance. Today the targets are Xhosa and Zulu, township against township, African immigrant against South African.”
Strategic Assets and Secessionist Ambitions
The wall’s construction also coincides with renewed efforts by some members of Cape Town’s white minority to break the Western Cape away from South Africa entirely. A UK-born immigrant named Phil Craig has been lobbying Washington to support secession, reportedly comparing Cape Town’s strategic value to Panama and Greenland — two territories former U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to seize by military force.
Oliver described Craig’s campaign as “an invitation to a foreign power to invade a sovereign nation” and “treason.”
Cape Town generates approximately 10% of South Africa’s entire GDP. With Red Sea shipping lanes disrupted by conflict, the Cape Sea Route has emerged as one of the world’s most strategically valuable maritime corridors.
“Whoever controls Cape Town controls the southern gateway of an entire continent,” Oliver warned.
Two Crises, One Question
On the ground in Nyanga, residents say the wall does nothing to address their own vulnerability to crime. According to police statistics, the Nyanga Police Station recorded the highest number of robberies with aggravating circumstances in the country between October and December 2025, and the second-highest number of murders — a 29% increase from the previous quarter.
“Walls might stop bullets but it doesn’t stop crime,” said city councillor Jonathan Cupido of the GOOD political party. Cupido accused the DA-led city government of trying to “hide what we cannot fix.”
At the Cape Town Mardi Gras festival this month, activists carried banners reading “Homes not walls!” — redirecting attention to the city’s deepening housing crisis. Nyanga Community Policing Forum chairman Dumisani Qwebe urged authorities to focus on improving living environments “rather than thinking of building a security wall on the N2.”
Yet as black South Africans protest the wall and, in other moments, attack African immigrants, the commentator’s central question lingers: Who is the real enemy?
“European immigrants are flooding in, buying up land and driving up costs, welcomed by the same settler class building the apartheid wall,” he wrote. “While South African communities are turned against each other, the settler class has always been unified. When will Africa be?”
City authorities have not responded to accusations that the wall is racially motivated. The N2 Edge project is proceeding as planned, with completion expected in early 2027.
Africa Watch
Domino Effect: Ghana’s Evacuation of Citizens from South Africa Sparks Regional Exodus as Nigeria Follows Suit
Ghana’s decision to evacuate its citizens from South Africa amid rising xenophobic attacks has triggered a regional domino effect, with Nigeria now set to begin withdrawing its own nationals next week, according to Ghana’s High Commissioner to South Africa, H.E. Benjamin Quashie.
Speaking on Citi Eyewitness News, Quashie disclosed that discussions with his diplomatic counterparts suggest growing regional backing for Ghana’s stance, positioning Accra as the catalyst for what could become a continent-wide exodus.
“A lot of them are following what we have done. I am aware that Nigeria will be evacuating its citizens next week,” he said.
The High Commissioner’s remarks come in direct response to criticism from some South African figures, including politician Julius Malema, who has argued that Ghana overstated its decision to evacuate. Quashie’s disclosure that Africa’s most populous nation is preparing to follow Ghana’s lead appears to undercut those claims, suggesting that fears over foreign nationals’ safety are far from exaggerated.
Ghana began its evacuation exercise on Wednesday, May 28, with the first batch of 300 citizens arriving at Accra International Airport, where they were received by a government delegation led by Chief of Staff Julius Debrah and Foreign Affairs Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa. More than 800 Ghanaians have so far registered for voluntary evacuation following renewed fears over xenophobic attacks and insecurity targeting foreign nationals.
The evacuation exercise, announced earlier this month by Foreign Affairs Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa, forms part of measures to ensure the safety and welfare of Ghanaians abroad. The government has indicated that returnees will receive transport support, reintegration assistance, psychosocial counselling, as well as access to employment and start-up support programmes.
With Nigeria’s evacuation now imminent, questions are mounting over whether other African nations with large diasporas in South Africa—including Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique—will similarly activate repatriation plans. The growing exodus threatens to deepen diplomatic tensions between South Africa and its continental partners, even as Ghana’s High Commissioner maintains that the evacuations are a necessary precaution rather than a hostile act.
For the hundreds of Ghanaians who have already registered to leave, the decision is deeply personal. Many have spent years building livelihoods in South Africa, only to feel forced out by rising hostility.
As one returnee from the first batch reportedly shared upon arrival in Accra, home now feels like the only safe option.
Africa Watch
Analyst Warns AES Collapse Fuels Arms Flow and Jihadist ‘Creep’ Into Ghana
ACCRA – The collapse of military-led states in the Sahel is fueling arms trafficking and allowing jihadist networks to creep southward toward Ghana’s northern border, according to a sobering new analysis.
The analysis authored by Joseph McCarthy, an analyst and researcher specializing in governance, security, and political transitions in the region, warns that the self-styled Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has failed to contain extremism despite initial promises by the juntas that seized power in Bamako (2020), Ouagadougou (2022), and Niamey (2023).
Instead, the security situation has deteriorated dramatically.
‘State Presence Is Shrinking’
McCarthy notes that large portions of northern and eastern Burkina Faso are now either under jihadist influence or violently contested. In Mali, the regions of Taoudéni, Timbuktu, Ménaka, Gao, and much of Mopti remain outside effective state authority. While Niger retains a stronger foothold around Niamey and Maradi, insecurity is steadily creeping into Diffa, Tahoua, and Agadez.
“The trajectory across all three countries is identical: state presence is shrinking; militant mobility corridors are expanding southward,” McCarthy writes.
The analyst points to coordinated attacks across Mali in April 2026, striking Mopti, Gao, Kidal, Sévaré, and approach routes to Bamako simultaneously, as confirmation that Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State affiliates are growing more sophisticated, more coordinated, and operationally bolder.
The Threat to Ghana
While Ghana has not yet experienced large-scale jihadist violence, McCarthy argues the country is not insulated from what is coming.
“The expansion of JNIM and IS-affiliated operations into southern Burkina Faso has intensified arms trafficking, infiltration networks, and radicalization risks along Ghana’s northern border,” he writes.
McCarthy specifically highlights the Bawku conflict, rooted in ethnic and chieftaincy tensions, as “precisely the kind of local instability that extremist organizations have exploited elsewhere to gain a foothold.”
Ghana’s Security Response
According to the analyst, Ghanaian security agencies have responded with Operation Conquered Fist, expanded border surveillance, joint intelligence operations, and counter-extremism programs.
McCarthy describes these efforts as “reflecting a growing, sober recognition that this crisis is no longer distant. It is at the door.”
Broader Regional Warning
The analyst warns that the Sahel has become a sanctuary where extremist organizations regroup, recruit, train, and launch operations southward into coastal West Africa. He notes that Benin has already suffered deadly attacks near Pendjari National Park, Côte d’Ivoire continues fortifying its northern frontier following the Grand-Bassam massacre, and Togo has seen mounting infiltration pressure.
A Lesson Learned at Enormous Cost
McCarthy draws a stark conclusion from the AES experience: no country defeats a transnational insurgency through isolationist nationalism or militarized governance alone.
“Security and development are inseparable,” he writes. “Roads, schools, healthcare, agriculture, jobs, and functioning local governance are as essential to counterterrorism as soldiers and weapons. Where states are absent, extremists fill the space.”
He urges Ghana and the wider ECOWAS community not to treat the Sahel as someone else’s problem, warning that “West Africa cannot afford to learn that lesson twice.”
Joseph McCarthy is an analyst and researcher specializing in governance, security, and political transitions in the Sahel. The views expressed in his opinion article are his own.
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