Business
Upcoming Super El Niño Threatens to Worsen Global Food Crisis Amid Iran Conflict
Climate scientists and food security experts are warning that a powerful “super El Niño” expected later in 2026 could significantly intensify global food price pressures already heightened by the ongoing Middle East conflict involving Iran.
According to US meteorologists, there is roughly a one-in-three chance of a strong El Niño forming between October and December, while European models suggest an even higher probability of an exceptionally strong event.
A “super El Niño” occurs when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise at least 2°C above normal. This phenomenon typically triggers extreme weather patterns, including severe droughts in key agricultural regions, which can sharply reduce crop yields for commodities such as cocoa, rice, sugar, food oils, coffee, bananas, and soy.
The timing is particularly concerning because the Iran conflict has already disrupted global fertilizer supplies and shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, driving up costs for fuel and agricultural inputs. Analysts say the combination of war-induced supply shocks and El Niño-driven weather extremes could create a “double squeeze” on food production and prices. The United Nations World Food Program has cautioned that prolonged conflict and elevated oil prices could push the number of acutely food-insecure people globally significantly higher.
Dawid Heyl of Ninety One noted that while the Russia-Ukraine war affected food markets, the current situation is more worrying due to its direct impact on fertilizer production and availability.
He warned that overlapping negative factors — geopolitical disruption and strong El Niño conditions — could prove especially damaging for vulnerable countries in Africa, India, Australia, Brazil, and Argentina.
Experts state that long-term resilience will require greater investment in climate adaptation, diversified supply chains, and international cooperation to protect global food security as geopolitical and climate risks increasingly intersect.
Business
Making Sense of the Controversy Surrounding Award of Damang Gold Mine to Engineers & Planners (E&P) Owned by the President’s Brother
Accra, Ghana – The decision to award the Damang gold mine lease to Ghanaian-owned company Engineers and Planners Limited (E&P) has sparked public debate over transparency and due process, even as the Minerals Commission insists the tender was competitive and fully compliant with regulations.
The Damang Mine, previously operated by South Africa’s Gold Fields, is being transferred to Ghanaian ownership, i.e. a company owned by Ibrahim Mahama, the younger brother of President John Mahama, following the non-renewal of Gold Fields’ lease.

In March 2026, the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources opened a competitive tender for the asset. Four companies submitted bids. According to the Minerals Commission, only E&P satisfied all technical, financial, and regulatory requirements under the Minerals and Mining (Licensing) Regulations 2012 (L.I. 2176). To be sure, E&P has been in the mining game for years, before Mahama became president the first time and thrived after he left office.
The Mineral Commission’s Acting Director of Legal Affairs, Josef Iroko, has strongly defended the process to hand over the mining concession to E&P, stating that the evaluation was merit-based, impartial, and guided strictly by published tender guidelines. He has said that no favouritism was shown and that the outcome was determined solely by compliance and capability.
However, concerns have been raised about the speed and transparency of the approval process. The Minority in Parliament, through MP Akwasi Konadu (Manhyia North), has clarified that it is not opposed to Ghanaian participation or local ownership of mining assets. Instead, the Minority is calling for a demonstrably fair, open, and competitive process. Konadu highlighted that the tender closed on March 31, 2026, yet review, recommendation, and approval reportedly occurred within a week — including public holidays — raising questions about whether sufficient time was allowed for thorough evaluation. He also noted that key details, such as full evaluation criteria, minimum capital requirements, and operational plans, have not been publicly disclosed in detail, making independent verification difficult.
The Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) has also questioned the unusually rapid timeline of ministerial approval. Governance experts argue that while local ownership of strategic assets is welcome, speed must not come at the expense of transparency and public confidence in the management of Ghana’s natural resources.
The controversy occurs against the backdrop of Ghana’s long-standing policy to increase indigenous participation in the mining sector, which has historically been dominated by multinational companies.
Both the government and the Minerals Commission maintain that the Damang award followed due process and represents a legitimate step toward greater local control. The mine is scheduled for formal handover from Gold Fields to E&P in mid-April 2026.
Business
Renowned Global Bodies Warn Middle East War Will Scuttle Africa’s 2026 Growth
Four leading African and global development institutions have issued a stark joint warning that the escalating Middle East conflict is transmitting economic shocks to Africa faster and more intensely than previous global disruptions, potentially shaving at least 0.2 percentage points off the continent’s GDP growth in 2026 if the crisis lasts beyond six months.
The African Development Bank Group (AfDB), African Union Commission (AUC), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) released the policy brief on April 2, 2026, on the sidelines of the 58th Session of the Economic Commission for Africa.
The brief highlights surging fuel and food prices, higher shipping and insurance costs, exchange rate pressures, and tightening fiscal space as the main transmission channels.
Oil prices have already risen by 50% since the conflict intensified, while disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz — which handles about 20% of global oil exports — have drastically reduced traffic. The Middle East accounts for 15.8% of Africa’s imports and 10.9% of its exports.
The brief identifies fertilizer supply disruptions as potentially even more damaging than the oil shock for some countries, as reduced Gulf LNG supply affects ammonia and urea production during the critical planting season. Currencies in 29 African countries have already depreciated, raising debt servicing costs and making imports more expensive.
Particularly vulnerable nations include Senegal, Sudan, Cabo Verde, South Sudan, and The Gambia. However, some countries may see limited gains: Nigeria from higher oil prices and refined exports via the Dangote Refinery, Mozambique from LNG opportunities, and ports in South Africa, Namibia, Mauritius, and Kenya from rerouted shipping.
The institutions called for immediate coordinated action, including pooled fuel procurement, emergency food corridors, diversified fertilizer sourcing, and targeted social protection.
In the medium to long term, they urged accelerated renewable energy deployment, deeper AfCFTA integration, and the creation of a Continental Crisis and Resilience Compact focused on energy and food security, financial safety nets, and greater strategic autonomy.
This coordinated alert from Africa’s premier development bodies underscores the urgent need for the continent to move beyond reactive measures toward structural solutions that build long-term resilience against global shocks.
Business
Ghana Turns to Russian Fuel to Cushion Impact of Global Energy Crisis
Accra, Ghana – As global fuel markets face severe disruptions from escalating tensions involving Iran and the potential closure of key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, Ghana is emerging as one of the more insulated economies in Africa by diversifying its energy supplies, including through increased imports from Russia.
A tanker carrying approximately 320,000 barrels of refined petroleum products from Russia is currently en route to Ghana’s main oil hub in Tema, per a report by Business Insider Africa. The vessel, Hellas Fighter, loaded at Vysotsk and last tracked passing Mauritania, is expected to arrive on April 6. This shipment reflects Ghana’s pragmatic strategy to widen its supplier base amid uncertainty in traditional supply chains.
President John Dramani Mahama recently stated that Ghana currently has enough petroleum stocks to last about six weeks. Speaking at the World Affairs Council in Philadelphia, he acknowledged that fuel prices affect virtually every sector of the economy but assured that the government is taking steps to cushion the impact and secure additional supplies.
“We are making a real push to ensure that the economy is cushioned,” Mahama said, while expressing hope that “cooler heads will prevail” in the ongoing crisis.
The move toward Russian fuel highlights a broader shift across parts of Africa, where countries are actively diversifying sources to mitigate risks from global shocks, shipping disruptions, and price volatility.
While many sub-Saharan nations remain highly vulnerable due to heavy reliance on imports and foreign exchange constraints, Ghana’s approach demonstrates an effort to maintain stability through strategic sourcing.
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