Africa Watch
Analyst Warns AES Collapse Fuels Arms Flow and Jihadist ‘Creep’ Into Ghana
ACCRA – The collapse of military-led states in the Sahel is fueling arms trafficking and allowing jihadist networks to creep southward toward Ghana’s northern border, according to a sobering new analysis.
The analysis authored by Joseph McCarthy, an analyst and researcher specializing in governance, security, and political transitions in the region, warns that the self-styled Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has failed to contain extremism despite initial promises by the juntas that seized power in Bamako (2020), Ouagadougou (2022), and Niamey (2023).
Instead, the security situation has deteriorated dramatically.
‘State Presence Is Shrinking’
McCarthy notes that large portions of northern and eastern Burkina Faso are now either under jihadist influence or violently contested. In Mali, the regions of Taoudéni, Timbuktu, Ménaka, Gao, and much of Mopti remain outside effective state authority. While Niger retains a stronger foothold around Niamey and Maradi, insecurity is steadily creeping into Diffa, Tahoua, and Agadez.
“The trajectory across all three countries is identical: state presence is shrinking; militant mobility corridors are expanding southward,” McCarthy writes.
The analyst points to coordinated attacks across Mali in April 2026, striking Mopti, Gao, Kidal, Sévaré, and approach routes to Bamako simultaneously, as confirmation that Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State affiliates are growing more sophisticated, more coordinated, and operationally bolder.
The Threat to Ghana
While Ghana has not yet experienced large-scale jihadist violence, McCarthy argues the country is not insulated from what is coming.
“The expansion of JNIM and IS-affiliated operations into southern Burkina Faso has intensified arms trafficking, infiltration networks, and radicalization risks along Ghana’s northern border,” he writes.
McCarthy specifically highlights the Bawku conflict, rooted in ethnic and chieftaincy tensions, as “precisely the kind of local instability that extremist organizations have exploited elsewhere to gain a foothold.”
Ghana’s Security Response
According to the analyst, Ghanaian security agencies have responded with Operation Conquered Fist, expanded border surveillance, joint intelligence operations, and counter-extremism programs.
McCarthy describes these efforts as “reflecting a growing, sober recognition that this crisis is no longer distant. It is at the door.”
Broader Regional Warning
The analyst warns that the Sahel has become a sanctuary where extremist organizations regroup, recruit, train, and launch operations southward into coastal West Africa. He notes that Benin has already suffered deadly attacks near Pendjari National Park, Côte d’Ivoire continues fortifying its northern frontier following the Grand-Bassam massacre, and Togo has seen mounting infiltration pressure.
A Lesson Learned at Enormous Cost
McCarthy draws a stark conclusion from the AES experience: no country defeats a transnational insurgency through isolationist nationalism or militarized governance alone.
“Security and development are inseparable,” he writes. “Roads, schools, healthcare, agriculture, jobs, and functioning local governance are as essential to counterterrorism as soldiers and weapons. Where states are absent, extremists fill the space.”
He urges Ghana and the wider ECOWAS community not to treat the Sahel as someone else’s problem, warning that “West Africa cannot afford to learn that lesson twice.”
Joseph McCarthy is an analyst and researcher specializing in governance, security, and political transitions in the Sahel. The views expressed in his opinion article are his own.
Africa Watch
Go Back to Your Country: South Africans Chased from Mozambique Beach in Viral Video as Xenophobia Backlash Spreads Across Africa
In what many are calling random retaliation for recent xenophobic attacks on foreigners in South Africa, South Africans abroad are increasingly being confronted, harassed, and told to “go back to your country.”
In a dramatic scene captured on video and widely shared on social media, two South African women were confronted and ordered to leave a beach bar in Mozambique, with the owner telling them to “go to the beach in your country.”
The confrontation has gone viral, with many viewers interpreting it as retaliation for recent attacks on foreigners — particularly Mozambicans, Nigerians, Ghanaians, and Malawians — in South Africa.
In the footage, the bar owner questions why the women chose to holiday in Mozambique instead of staying in South Africa, escalating into a heated exchange.
This is the latest visible sign of growing resentment across the continent.
Covert Responses by African Countries
Beyond public confrontations, several African nations have responded more strategically to the xenophobia crisis:
- Repatriation Efforts: Ghana, Nigeria, Mozambique, and Malawi have quietly organised large-scale evacuations of their citizens. Ghana has already airlifted hundreds, while Nigeria has run multiple flights. Mozambique has bused out hundreds and reported several of its nationals killed in the violence.
- Diplomatic Pressure: Ghana formally petitioned the African Union for sanctions against South Africa. Several countries have summoned South African diplomats or postponed high-level visits. Nigeria has threatened broader retaliatory measures.
- Economic and Border Measures: There are reports of increased scrutiny at borders, informal boycotts of South African goods in some markets, and private sector pullbacks. Some countries are reviewing trade agreements and investment deals with South Africa.
- Public and Civil Society Backlash: Social media campaigns, protests, and calls for consumer boycotts of South African brands have gained traction across the region.
Ghana recently rejected a request for a state visit by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, citing a surge in xenophobic violence that has forced the repatriation of nearly 1,000 Ghanaians and left at least one citizen dead.
The South African government has condemned the violence and promised investigations, but critics say enforcement remains weak. Regional observers warn that without stronger action, xenophobia could cause long-term damage to South Africa’s diplomatic and economic standing in Africa.
This latest beach incident demonstrates how grassroots anger is manifesting beyond official channels, turning everyday interactions into flashpoints in the wider continental crisis.
Africa Watch
South African Minister’s ‘Drug Dens’ Comment Sparks Fury as Nigeria Accuses Pretoria of Hate Speech and ‘Apartheid-Style Behavior’
A diplomatic firestorm has erupted between Africa’s two largest economies after a South African cabinet minister dismissed Nigeria’s compensation demand for citizens fleeing xenophobic violence and instead challenged Abuja to disclose the locations of alleged Nigerian “drug dens” — a remark Nigeria has condemned as “hate speech” and “apartheid-style behavior”.
The controversy began last Friday, July 3, when South Africa’s Minister in the Presidency, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, rejected Nigeria’s request for compensation for citizens who abandoned businesses and properties while fleeing a surge of anti-migrant attacks.
At a media briefing, Ntshavheni said legally registered properties could be sold on the South African market but ruled out any government compensation. She then made remarks that have since triggered widespread outrage.
“We’ll be interested to know where the drug dens of Nigerians are,” Ntshavheni said. “So they can show us where they have been holding the drugs so that we can clean the drugs in South Africa quite urgently”. She added that “squatter camps and informal settlements are never properties because they are illegal in the country”.
When former Nigerian senator Shehu Sani expressed shock at her comments, Ntshavheni doubled down: “I didn’t stutter”.
Nigeria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded swiftly and forcefully on Sunday, issuing a statement condemning the remarks as “unacceptable”.
“Such derogatory, unprofessional and uncensored generalized public statements by highly placed government officials constitute hate speech that influences and incites negative and criminal actions against members of the Nigerian community,” the statement, signed by ministry spokesperson Kimiebi Ebienfa, read.
The Nigerian government further accused Pretoria of displaying “uncultured and provocative trend of intolerance and apartheid-style behavior” against foreigners. Abuja placed the South African government “on notice,” warning that “all options remain on the table” if the situation persists.
Two Nigerians Killed Amid Rising Xenophobia
The diplomatic row was triggered by the killing of two Nigerian nationals on 28 June, just two days before an unofficial deadline set by anti-migrant groups for undocumented foreigners to leave South Africa.
Emeka Charles Iroegbu was “reportedly killed” in Pretoria by officers from the Tshwane Metro Police Department using “gruesome interrogation techniques,” according to Nigeria’s foreign ministry. On the same day, unidentified assailants killed shop owner Musa Yunana Joe outside his shop in the city of eMalahleni.
Nigeria has also cited a separate pending case from April 2026 involving the same police unit, in which another Nigerian national, Nnaemeka Mathew Andrew Ekpenyong, was killed in Pretoria. Despite the identities of the officers being known to South African authorities, no arrests have been made.
Mass Repatriation and Regional Tensions
The incidents come amid a sharp rise in anti-migrant sentiment in South Africa, which has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world at more than 30%. Protest groups including Operation Dudula and March on March have organised large-scale demonstrations, arguing that undocumented migrants strain public services and compete for local jobs.
Roughly 25,000 citizens from other African countries have been repatriated by their nations, including some 700 Nigerians. Ghana and Malawi are among other African countries that have evacuated their citizens ahead of the 30 June deadline.
Escalating Diplomatic Crisis
The tensions have pushed diplomatic ties between Nigeria and South Africa to their lowest point in 30 years, according to analysts. Nigeria has condemned anti-immigrant groups such as March on March and Operation Dudula, warning that their leaders “will be held to account as a matter of regional and international criminal liability”.
The Nigerian government has also questioned state responsibility under international law, noting that the involvement of security personnel in the killings raises serious concerns. While Nigeria has not specified what actions it might take, some activists have called for tit-for-tat measures against the more than 100 South African companies operating in Nigeria, including MTN Group, Shoprite, and Standard Bank.
However, Nigeria’s foreign ministry has appealed for calm, urging Nigerians not to take the law into their own hands through retaliatory actions.
“The government calls on the general Nigerian public to remain calm and not take the law into their own hands through retaliatory actions,” Ebienfa said.
South African authorities have yet to officially respond to Nigeria’s accusations regarding the killings or the hate speech allegations.
Africa Watch
Desperation at the Gates: Thousands of Immigrants Rush to Repatriation Centers in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal
Thousands of immigrants have descended on makeshift repatriation centers in KwaZulu-Natal, desperate to flee South Africa after losing their homes, jobs, and facing violent threats amid a wave of anti-immigrant attacks.
The Old Drive-in site in Pietermaritzburg, transformed into a temporary repatriation facility, has been overwhelmed by the sheer number of people seeking to return to their countries of origin. With the center at full capacity, new arrivals have been forced to sleep outside – many for two consecutive nights – without access to water, toilets, or food.
On Tuesday morning, June 23, 2026, scores of people were sitting outside the gates as more were dropped off by minibus taxis. By 6pm, women and children were finally allowed into the facility, escorted by police, while the crowd outside continued to swell throughout the afternoon and into the evening.
‘I spent the night outside with no place to relieve myself’
Rose Jesinao, a Malawian national, said she travelled from the Eastern Cape – where she worked as a domestic worker for R2,500 a month – after hearing that Malawians were being repatriated.
“I spent the night outside with no place to relieve myself,” Jesinao told reporters at the facility.
Musa Saide said he arrived in South Africa without documents and was working at a hardware store in Harding, earning R600 a week. He has two children whom he is leaving behind with their South African mother because they lack travel documents.
Violent mob attacks trigger mass exodus
The rush to repatriation centers follows violent mob attacks in the Jika Joe informal settlement in Pietermaritzburg on Friday, sparked by a protest organized by the anti-immigration group March and March. One person was reportedly killed during the violence.
March and March’s leaders have previously denounced violent acts, but founder Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma did not respond to requests for comment.
Malawian migrants living in Jika Joe sought refuge in an empty, disused building owned by the Department of Public Works. By Monday, more than 1,600 people were packed into the premises, according to Stephen van Neel, the national immigration enforcement officer for the Department of Home Affairs.
Buses depart as tensions flare
The humanitarian aid organization Gift of the Givers, with sponsorship from local businesses, organized buses to transport people to Malawi. Two 65-seater buses left for Malawi on Monday, with another 12 departing on Tuesday. The organization also provided relief packs to those waiting.
Tensions flared as people desperate to board the buses tried to jump the queue, with metro officers using riot shields to push the crowd back.
Van Neel could not confirm how many people remained in the camp, stating that a new count had to be conducted.
Activists call for urgent intervention
In an open letter to President Cyril Ramaphosa, the Siyafana Sonke Action Campaign – a coalition of more than 160 civil society organisations – called for an urgent meeting to address what they described as “the escalating crisis of pogroms, forced removals, and the displacement of migrants.”
The coalition is demanding the “immediate cessation of violence,” the “provision of humanitarian aid,” and the arrest of leaders of anti-immigration movements.
Police Minister Firoz Cachalia said on Tuesday that preparations ahead of March and March’s 30 June deadline will cost the fiscus R600-million.
A humanitarian crisis unfolds
The scenes at Pietermaritzburg’s repatriation centres paint a grim picture of a humanitarian crisis unfolding in real time.
Thousands of vulnerable foreign nationals – many of whom had built lives in South Africa – are now fleeing in desperation, leaving behind jobs, homes, and even family members, as xenophobic violence and economic pressures converge.
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