Africa Watch
Analyst Warns AES Collapse Fuels Arms Flow and Jihadist ‘Creep’ Into Ghana
ACCRA – The collapse of military-led states in the Sahel is fueling arms trafficking and allowing jihadist networks to creep southward toward Ghana’s northern border, according to a sobering new analysis.
The analysis authored by Joseph McCarthy, an analyst and researcher specializing in governance, security, and political transitions in the region, warns that the self-styled Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has failed to contain extremism despite initial promises by the juntas that seized power in Bamako (2020), Ouagadougou (2022), and Niamey (2023).
Instead, the security situation has deteriorated dramatically.
‘State Presence Is Shrinking’
McCarthy notes that large portions of northern and eastern Burkina Faso are now either under jihadist influence or violently contested. In Mali, the regions of Taoudéni, Timbuktu, Ménaka, Gao, and much of Mopti remain outside effective state authority. While Niger retains a stronger foothold around Niamey and Maradi, insecurity is steadily creeping into Diffa, Tahoua, and Agadez.
“The trajectory across all three countries is identical: state presence is shrinking; militant mobility corridors are expanding southward,” McCarthy writes.
The analyst points to coordinated attacks across Mali in April 2026, striking Mopti, Gao, Kidal, Sévaré, and approach routes to Bamako simultaneously, as confirmation that Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State affiliates are growing more sophisticated, more coordinated, and operationally bolder.
The Threat to Ghana
While Ghana has not yet experienced large-scale jihadist violence, McCarthy argues the country is not insulated from what is coming.
“The expansion of JNIM and IS-affiliated operations into southern Burkina Faso has intensified arms trafficking, infiltration networks, and radicalization risks along Ghana’s northern border,” he writes.
McCarthy specifically highlights the Bawku conflict, rooted in ethnic and chieftaincy tensions, as “precisely the kind of local instability that extremist organizations have exploited elsewhere to gain a foothold.”
Ghana’s Security Response
According to the analyst, Ghanaian security agencies have responded with Operation Conquered Fist, expanded border surveillance, joint intelligence operations, and counter-extremism programs.
McCarthy describes these efforts as “reflecting a growing, sober recognition that this crisis is no longer distant. It is at the door.”
Broader Regional Warning
The analyst warns that the Sahel has become a sanctuary where extremist organizations regroup, recruit, train, and launch operations southward into coastal West Africa. He notes that Benin has already suffered deadly attacks near Pendjari National Park, Côte d’Ivoire continues fortifying its northern frontier following the Grand-Bassam massacre, and Togo has seen mounting infiltration pressure.
A Lesson Learned at Enormous Cost
McCarthy draws a stark conclusion from the AES experience: no country defeats a transnational insurgency through isolationist nationalism or militarized governance alone.
“Security and development are inseparable,” he writes. “Roads, schools, healthcare, agriculture, jobs, and functioning local governance are as essential to counterterrorism as soldiers and weapons. Where states are absent, extremists fill the space.”
He urges Ghana and the wider ECOWAS community not to treat the Sahel as someone else’s problem, warning that “West Africa cannot afford to learn that lesson twice.”
Joseph McCarthy is an analyst and researcher specializing in governance, security, and political transitions in the Sahel. The views expressed in his opinion article are his own.
Africa Watch
Full Itinerary of President Mahama’s High-Level Engagements at the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi
The President of the Republic of Ghana and African Union (AU) Champion for African Financial Institutions, John Dramani Mahama, has arrived in Nairobi, Kenya, to participate in the Africa Forward Summit – a high-level France-Africa partnership meeting convened by French President Emmanuel Macron.
The summit has brought together African Heads of State, global business leaders, and international partners to foster collaboration on sustainable development, economic resilience, and global cooperation. President Mahama’s presence underscores Ghana’s active role in shaping continental policy on finance, industrialisation, and health.
Below is the detailed itinerary of President Mahama’s engagements during his working visit to Nairobi.
Day 1: Arrival and Opening of Summit
Tuesday, Morning Session – Green Industrialisation and Energy Transition
President Mahama will join a high-level discussion on Green Industrialisation and Energy Transition. This session aims to chart a practical path for Africa’s industrial growth while simultaneously addressing the urgent challenges of the global climate crisis. The discussion will explore how African nations can leapfrog to cleaner energy systems without sacrificing development targets.
Tuesday, Midday – Working Lunch on Reform of the International Financial Architecture
Reflecting his strategic role as the AU Champion for African Financial Institutions, President Mahama will participate in a working lunch centered on the Reform of the International Financial Architecture. This discussion will focus specifically on:
- Improving African countries’ access to sustainable financing.
- Ensuring that the global financial system becomes more equitable.
- Making international financial institutions more responsive to the continent’s unique development needs.
Tuesday, Afternoon – Co-Chairing the Round Table on Health
President Mahama, who is leading Ghana’s domestic Accra Reset Initiative on healthcare transformation, will co-chair a Round Table on Health themed: “Rethinking global health and building resilient national health systems.” This engagement will highlight strategies for strengthening health systems across Africa to withstand future pandemics and health emergencies.
Tuesday, Late Afternoon – Side Meetings and Bilateral Engagements
On the sidelines of the summit, President Mahama is scheduled to hold several high-profile bilateral meetings. These include talks with:
- H.E. António Guterres – Secretary-General of the United Nations. Discussions will focus on global cooperation and multilateral support for Africa’s development agenda.
- Kristalina Georgieva – Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The meeting will centre on economic stability, fiscal policy, and Ghana’s ongoing reforms.
- Alvaro Lario – President of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). Talks will address food security, agricultural financing, and rural development in Ghana and across Africa.
Tuesday, Evening – Departure
President Mahama is expected to leave Nairobi in the evening and return to Accra, concluding his working visit to Kenya.
Summary of Presidential Itinerary
| Time | Engagement |
|---|---|
| Morning | High-level discussion: Green Industrialisation & Energy Transition |
| Midday | Working lunch: Reform of International Financial Architecture |
| Afternoon | Co-chair Round Table on Health: Rethinking global health systems |
| Late Afternoon | Bilateral meetings: UN Secretary-General, IMF MD, IFAD President |
| Evening | Departure from Nairobi, return to Accra |
Source: Richard Aniagyei, Information Services Department
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has strongly condemned the recent wave of violent protests and criminal acts targeting foreign nationals in parts of the country.
Ramaphosa stated that such actions do not represent the views of the South African people nor the policy of his government.
In a post on X (formerly Twitter) dated May 11, 2026, titled “From the Desk of the President,” Ramaphosa directly addressed the nation, saying:
“The recent violent protests and criminal acts directed at foreign nationals in parts of our country do not represent the views of South Africa’s people nor reflect our government’s policy.”
The statement, which garnered over 545,000 views, comes amid rising tensions and reports of attacks on immigrant-owned businesses and properties in several South African provinces.
Ghana Responds: A Call for Pan-African Resolve
Reacting to the President’s assurance, Ghana’s Foreign Minister, Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa, described the statement as “reassuring” and called for a united African front to resolve the crisis. In a post that invoked the legacy of Ghana’s first president, Ablakwa stated:
“We count on your leadership to resolve this. Ghana deeply values the longstanding great and inspiring bilateral relations defined by true solidarity and brotherhood with South Africa. I unrepentantly share in Kwame Nkrumah’s dream — Africa Shall UNITE.”
The diplomatic exchange highlights the deep concern across the continent following the resurgence of xenophobic violence in South Africa, which has historically led to strained relations with other African nations.
Ablakwa’s emphatic reference to Nkrumah’s vision of a unified Africa underscores Ghana’s expectation that South Africa, as a continental economic powerhouse, will protect the principle of free movement and safety for all African citizens within its borders.
As of press time, no official statement has been released by the South African police regarding arrests or specific measures to curb the violence.
Africa Watch
‘Close Your Shops, Avoid the Streets’: Ghana Issues New, Urgent Warning to Citizens in South Africa Over Anti-Immigrant Rallies
The Ghana High Commission in Pretoria has issued an urgent public advisory for Ghanaian nationals living in and around Mthatha, urging them to close their businesses and avoid public areas ahead of planned anti-immigration demonstrations scheduled for Monday, 11th May 2026.
The advisory, released Sunday, May 10, 2026, reflects growing concern over the potential for violence against foreign nationals, a recurring issue in various South African provinces.
The High Commission confirmed it had received credible information regarding the demonstrations, which are expected to take place in Mthatha and surrounding areas of the Eastern Cape.
‘Heightened Caution’ Advised
In the official statement, the High Commission “strongly encouraged” Ghanaian residents to exercise heightened caution throughout the demonstration period. Specific directives include:
- Avoiding all areas where demonstrations or public gatherings are taking place.
- Refraining from any form of confrontation, provocation, or public disputes.
- Ensuring identification and immigration documents are valid and readily accessible.
- Closing shops and businesses during the period of the demonstrations where necessary for personal safety.
The Commission further urged Ghanaian nationals to cooperate fully with local South African law enforcement authorities and to prioritize their personal safety at all times.
Emergency Consular Channels Opened
The advisory also activated emergency consular assistance for those in distress. Any Ghanaian national requiring help has been instructed to contact the High Commission through dedicated emergency channels.
“The High Commission will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide further updates where necessary,” the statement read.
Recurring Tensions in South Africa
The warning echoes past episodes of xenophobic violence in South Africa, where foreign nationals, including Nigerians, Zimbabweans, Somalis, and Ghanaians, have faced targeted attacks, looting of shops, and property damage. Such incidents often stem from accusations that immigrants take jobs, drive down wages, or are linked to criminal activity, claims frequently disputed by community leaders and human rights organizations.
Mthatha, a major urban center in the Eastern Cape, has seen periodic protests over service delivery and economic hardship. The planned anti-immigration dimension adds a volatile element, according to local analysts.
Diaspora on Edge
For Ghana’s diaspora community in South Africa, estimated to number in the tens of thousands, the advisory brings renewed anxiety. Many operate small retail businesses, which have historically been flashpoints during anti-foreigner unrest.
The High Commission’s directive to proactively close shops suggests an elevated level of concern among diplomatic officials, who typically urge restraint but stop short of recommending business closures unless risks are deemed severe.
Global news will continue monitoring developments in Mthatha, with further updates expected from the High Commission as the situation evolves.
-
Ghana News2 days agoMobile Money Transactions Hit GH¢493.2bn in April, Soldier Killed in Counter-Terrorism Blast, and Other Big Stories in Ghana Today
-
Global Update2 days agoJust Days Away, GMet Warns Heavy Rains to Intensify in Southern Ghana by Late May
-
Ghana News13 hours agoTikToker Arrested Over Death Threats Against President Mahama, GN Bank’s License Restored, and Other Big Stories in Ghana Today
-
Ghana News2 days agoNewspaper Headlines Today: Thursday, May 21, 2026
-
Ghana News12 hours agoXenophobia in South Africa: Ablakwa’s Foreign Ministry Faces First Major Test
-
Ghana News13 hours ago
Newspaper Headlines Today: Friday, May 22, 2026
-
Ghana News2 days agoVaccine Institute Boss Sodzi-Tettey Reveals How Mahama Turned $50M Into a Global Health Sovereignty Movement
-
Ghana News12 hours agoEbola Risk Low, but Ghanaians Told to Wash Hands and Avoid Mass Gatherings