Commentary
Violent aftermath of Mexico’s ‘El Mencho’ killing follows pattern of other high-profile cartel hits
The recent death of Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” has triggered severe retaliatory violence in Mexico, resulting in at least 73 deaths. This article analyzes the event as part of a predictable and counterproductive pattern in Mexico’s security strategy. The author, Angélica Durán-Martínez, an expert on Latin American criminal groups, argues that while high-profile hits like this one serve political purposes by demonstrating action, they rarely dismantle criminal networks. Instead, they often lead to immediate violent backlash and longer-term fragmentation as factions fight for control.
Violent aftermath of Mexico’s ‘El Mencho’ killing follows pattern of other high-profile cartel hits
By Angélica Durán-Martínez, UMass Lowell
The death of a major cartel boss in Mexico has unleashed a violent backlash in which members of the criminal group have paralyzed some cities through blockades and attacks on property and security forces.
At least 73 people have died as a result of the operation to capture Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, or “El Mencho.” The head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel was seriously wounded during a firefight with authorities on Feb. 22, 2026. He later died in custody.
As an expert in criminal groups and drug trafficking in Latin America who has been studying Mexico’s cartels for two decades, I see the violent aftermath of the operation as part of a pattern in which Mexican governments have opted for high-profile hits that often lead only to more violence without addressing the broader security problems that plague huge swaths of the country.
Who was ‘El Mencho’?
Like many other figures involved in Mexico’s drug trafficking, Oseguera Cervantes started at the bottom and made his way up the ranks. He spent some time in prison in the U.S., where he may have forged alliances with criminal gangs before being deported back to Mexico in 1997. There, he connected with the Milenio Cartel, an organization that first allied, and then fought with, the powerful Sinaloa Cartel.
Most of the information available points to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel forming under El Mencho around 2010, following the killing of Ignacio “Nacho” Coronel Villarreal, a Sinaloa Cartel leader and main link with the Milenio Cartel.
Since 2015, Jalisco New Generation Cartel has been known for its blatant attacks against security forces in Mexico – such as gunning down a helicopter in that year. And it has expanded its presence both across Mexico and internationally.
In Mexico, it is said to have a presence in all states. In some, the cartel has a direct presence and very strong local networks. In others, it has cultivated alliances with other trafficking organizations.
Besides drug trafficking, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel is also engaged in oil theft, people smuggling and extortion. As a result, it has become one of the most powerful cartels in Mexico.
What impact will his death have on the cartel?
There are a few potential scenarios, and a lot will depend on what succession plans Jalisco New Generation had in the event of Oseguera Cervantes’ capture or killing.
In general, these types of operations – in which security forces take out a cartel leader – lead to more violence, for a variety of reasons.
Mexicans have already experienced the immediate aftermath of Oseguera Cervantes’ death: retaliation attacks, blockades and official attempts to prevent civilians from going out. This is similar to what occurred after the capture of drug lord Ovidio Guzmán López in Sinaloa in 2019 and his second capture in 2023.
Violence flares in two ways following such high-profile captures and killings of cartel leaders.
In the short term, there is retaliation. At the moment, members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel are seeking revenge against Mexico’s security forces and are also trying to assert their regional authority despite El Mencho’s death.
These retaliatory campaigns tend to be violent and flashy. They include blockades as well as attacks against security forces and civilians.
Then there is the longer-term violence associated with any succession. This can take the form of those who are below Oseguera Cervantes in rank fighting for control. But it can also result from rival groups trying to take advantage of any leadership vacuum.
The level and duration of violence depend on a few factors, such as whether there was a succession plan and what kind of alliances are in place with other cartels. But generally, operations in which a cartel boss is removed lead to more violence and fragmentation of criminal groups.
Of course, people like Oseguera Cervantes who have violated laws and engaged in violence need to be captured. But in the long run, that doesn’t do anything to dismantle networks of criminality or reduce the size of their operations.
What is the current state of security in Mexico?
The upsurge in violence after Oseguera Cervantes’ killing occurs as some indicators in Mexico’s security situation seemed to be improving.
For example, homicide rates declined in 2025 – which is an important indicator of security.
But other measures are appalling. Disappearances are still unsettlingly high. The reality that many Mexicans experience on the ground is one where criminal organizations remain powerful and embedded in the local ecosystems that connect state agents, politicians and criminals in complex networks.
Criminal organizations are engaged in what we academics call “criminal governance.” They engage in a wide range of activities and regulate life in communities – sometimes coercively, but sometimes also with some degree of legitimacy from the population.
In some states like Sinaloa, despite the operations to take out cartel’s leaders, the illicit economies are still extensive and profitable. But what’s more important is that levels of violence remain high and the population is still suffering deeply.
The day-to-day reality for people in some of these regions is still one of fear.
And in the greater scheme of things, criminal networks are still very powerful – they are embedded in the country’s economy and politics, and connect to communities in complex ways.
How does the El Mencho operation fit Mexico’s strategy on cartels?
The past two governments vowed to reduce the militarization of security forces. But the power of the military in Mexico has actually expanded.
The government of President Claudia Sheinbaum wanted a big, visible hit at a time when the U.S. is pushing for more militarized policies to counter Mexico’s trafficking organizations.
But this dynamic is not new. Most U.S. and Mexican policy regarding drug trafficking organizations has historically emphasized these high-profile captures – even if it is just for short-term gains.
It’s easier to say “we captured a drug lord” than address broader issues of corruption or impunity. Most of the time when these cartel leaders are captured or killed, there is generally no broader justice. It isn’t accompanied with authorities investigating disappearances, murders, corruption or even necessarily halting the flow of drugs.
Captures and killings of cartel leaders serve a strategic purpose of showing that something is being done, but the effectiveness of such policies in the long run is very limited.
Of course, taking out a drug lord is not a bad thing. But if it does not come with a broader dismantling of criminal networks and an accompanying focus on justice, then the main crimes that these groups commit – homicides, disappearances and extortion – will continue to affect the daily life of people. And the effect on illicit flows is, at best, meager.
Angélica Durán-Martínez, Associate Professor of Political Science, UMass Lowell
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Conventional wisdom dictates that rising prices should lead to falling demand. However, this article challenges that notion by delving into the complex and often counterintuitive relationship between global oil prices and petrol consumption in Ghana. Drawing on recent research analyzing market data from 2016 to 2024, Rafael Adjpong Amankwah reveals that higher crude oil prices do not automatically suppress demand. Instead, factors like consumer hoarding behavior in anticipation of future hikes and the essential nature of petrol for transport and logistics can keep consumption stable or even cause it to spike temporarily.
Rising oil prices could trigger unexpected petrol demand in Ghana
Fuel prices may rise again soon, but what if higher prices don’t actually reduce petrol consumption in Ghana?
Discussions about rising global crude oil prices are once again dominating energy market conversations, raising concerns about higher petrol prices and increased transport costs across Ghana.
Yet the relationship between oil prices and petrol consumption may not be as straightforward as many assume. Conventional economic theory suggests that when fuel prices rise, consumers should reduce consumption. However, recent research analyzing Ghana’s petrol market reveals a more complex pattern of behavior.
The study finds that crude oil prices exhibit a positive relationship with petrol consumption, indicating that higher prices do not necessarily suppress demand as standard models predict.
This pattern reflects several structural characteristics of Ghana’s economy.
First, alleged BDC’s stockpiling increases the potential for increased purchases(demand) vis a vis consumption as consumers often engage in anticipatory or hoarding behavior when price increases are expected.
Second, global crude oil price increases do not necessarily reduce petrol consumption in Ghana in the short run. Petrol is an essential input for transport, logistics, and small business operations, meaning substitution possibilities are limited. As a result, consumption may remain stable or even increase due to inventory adjustments and expectations of further price hikes
These findings also carry an important methodological implication that Traditional symmetric demand models, which assume that price increases and decreases produce equal but opposite responses in consumption, appear to misrepresent the dynamics of Ghana’s petrol market.
When asymmetric price behavior such as the Rock-and-Feathers effect interacts with structural demand constraints, consumption responses become more complex than standard theory predicts.
Using monthly national data from 2016 to 2024 and applying a nonlinear econometric approach, the study examined how crude oil prices, exchange rates, inflation, and domestic fuel taxes affect petrol consumption.
The findings show that petrol consumption in Ghana responds asymmetrically to price changes. In practical terms, this means that price increases and price decreases do not affect consumption in the same way.
The research also highlights the importance of exchange rate movements. Because Ghana imports most of its refined petroleum products, a depreciation of the cedi significantly increases the local cost of fuel and tends to reduce consumption.
Perhaps the most influential factor identified in the study is domestic fuel taxation. Changes in taxes, levies and margins have a stronger effect on petrol consumption than movements in global crude oil prices. In particular, reductions in fuel taxes tend to stimulate consumption much more strongly than tax increases suppress it.
These findings suggest that policymakers seeking to manage fuel demand, inflation, and fiscal stability should pay close attention to domestic fuel pricing structures rather than focusing solely on international oil price movements.
As global oil markets face renewed volatility, understanding how Ghanaian consumers and businesses respond to fuel price changes will become increasingly important for economic planning and energy policy
Understanding the behavioral responses behind fuel consumption is critical for managing energy affordability, fiscal stability, and economic resilience.
The next time fuel prices rise in Ghana, the assumption that “higher prices reduce consumption” may need to be reconsidered.
In reality, the dynamics of petrol demand are shaped by behavioral responses, policy decisions, and exchange rate pressures, not just global crude oil prices. Understanding these asymmetries could be the difference between reacting to fuel price shocks and actually managing them.
Rafael Amankwah is a professional in Ghana’s downstream energy sector with a background in energy economics and investment strategy. He is passionate about advancing sustainable energy solutions and applies research, behavioral insights, and innovation to support smarter energy policies and business models.
Commentary
Ghana Must Choose Diplomacy Over Alignment in the Israel–Iran Crisis: Lessons from Ghana’s Peacekeeping and Non-Aligned Legacy
In an open letter to Israel’s ambassador, author Seth K. Awuku argues that Ghana must resist pressure to take sides in the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. Drawing on the recent wounding of Ghanaian peacekeepers in Lebanon and the nation’s non-aligned legacy, he calls for a return to diplomacy, restraint, and the protection of national interest over strategic alignment. Read the full commentary below.
Ghana Must Choose Diplomacy Over Alignment in the Israel–Iran Crisis: Lessons from Ghana’s Peacekeeping and Non-Aligned Legacy
By: Seth K. Awuku
Your Excellency Ambassador Roey Gilad,
I extend sincere diplomatic courtesy and appreciation for your prompt humanitarian response following the missile strike that wounded Ghanaian peacekeepers in southern Lebanon.
In times of shared sorrow, words carry profound weight. Your description of the attack as “tragic” and “catastrophic,” along with your wishes for the swift recovery of the injured soldiers, reflects genuine compassion. Ghana receives such gestures with gratitude, for they affirm our shared humanity amid the smoke of conflict.
Yet only two days earlier, on March 5, during a public briefing in Accra, you urged Ghana to “join its voice” in confronting Iran and to support a strategic change in its leadership to end threats and instability.
That appeal, understandable from Israel’s perspective, now stands in painful contrast to the fresh wounds suffered by Ghanaian soldiers serving under the United Nations. Tragedy, once named, requires more than sympathy—it demands reflection.
The attack of March 6 tore through the Ghanaian battalion headquarters in southern Lebanon, leaving two soldiers critically injured and another traumatized. Ghanaian peacekeepers have served in Lebanon for decades, often under dangerous and unpredictable conditions.
These events revive older concerns about the security of our personnel abroad and the broader risks that accompany escalating regional conflict.
They also follow a troubling incident in December 2025 at Ben Gurion International Airport, where several Ghanaians including members of an official delegation were detained for hours and subjected to questioning and searches that Ghana later described as humiliating and degrading. Such incidents, when repeated, inevitably strain trust.
Reciprocity, transparent investigation, accountability, and credible assurances against recurrence are essential to rebuilding confidence.
Your Excellency, during the Israel–Hamas War in November 2023, I addressed an open letter to your predecessor, Shlomit Sufa, cautioning that if the conflict escalated unchecked, it “may not be like other wars; it may be apocalyptic in scope and possibly destructive of our globe.” That warning was offered not in division, but in concern for the safety and future of all peoples caught in the widening arc of war.
Recent missile exchanges between Israel and Iran demonstrate the growing lethality of modern warfare and the alarming vulnerability of civilian populations – even in countries equipped with advanced defense systems. Ghana, however, does not possess such protections.
Our security priorities focus primarily on internal stability and peacekeeping obligations. We do not have missile interception systems, sophisticated air defenses, or the strategic infrastructure necessary to withstand retaliatory strikes in a wider regional confrontation. Alignment in conflicts of this magnitude, without equivalent protection, exposes vulnerabilities that Ghana cannot afford. Our ports, markets, infrastructure, and communities would all be at risk should tensions expand beyond the Middle East.
Precisely because great powers often allow strategic rivalries to overshadow the urgency of peace, middle powers like Ghana carry a different kind of responsibility. Our diplomatic tradition, shaped by the non-aligned vision of Kwame Nkrumah, strengthened through decades of peacekeeping, and inspired by the global statesmanship of Kofi Annan, places upon us a quiet but meaningful moral authority.
We can call for restraint without appearing weak, advocate dialogue without conceding defeat, and remind the world that wisdom in diplomacy is often measured not by the volume of power, but by the courage to prevent catastrophe.
The Hebrew Scriptures offer a powerful reminder of the difference between victory and legacy. In 1 Chronicles, King David is told he cannot build the temple because he has shed too much blood. Instead, that task falls to his son Solomon, whose name signifies peace and rest. True greatness, the text suggests, lies not only in the victories of war but in the achievements of peace.
History also remembers another figure: Samson, the blinded warrior who in despair pulled down the pillars of the temple, destroying himself and his enemies alike. If modern conflicts are pushed toward such desperation; if nuclear doctrines or catastrophic retaliation ever become reality, the consequences would extend far beyond the borders of any single nation. Ghana therefore pleads for wisdom over pride and restraint over escalation.
In moments such as this, the measure of leadership is not found in the power to escalate conflict, but in the wisdom to pause, reflect, and choose the harder path of peace.
May the calm voice of diplomacy silence the roar of war.
May the wounded recover before new wounds are inflicted.
May the pain of mistrust fade like morning mist across the savanna.
And may history remember not the clash of weapons, but the courage of those who chose dialogue over destruction.
With respect for your office, hope for the recovery of the injured, and a shared aversion to catastrophe,
I remain,
By Seth K. Awuku
Principal, Sovereign Advisory
Former Immigration and Refugee Lawyer (Ottawa, Canada)
Writer on international law, diplomacy, and refugee governance
Commentary
Influencer Shanell R. Oliver Delivers Powerful Message to All Blacks: “We Are One African People Living in Different Places”
Accra, Ghana – March 6, 2026 – U.S.-based influencer Shanell R. Oliver (@shanellroliver) shared a viral Facebook video reminding the global African diaspora of their shared West and Central African roots, urging unity across borders and continents.
In the emotional post, Oliver reminds Blacks across the world that more than 12.5 million Africans were forcibly trafficked during the transatlantic slave trade, with over 90% originating from the same core regions: the Congo Kingdom, Akan States (including modern Ghana), Yoruba and Dahomey lands (Nigeria and Benin), Igbo heartlands, and Senegambia. This common ancestry links African Americans, Afro-Brazilians, Haitians, Jamaicans, Trinidadians, Cubans, Dominicans, and Afro-descendant communities in Colombia, Venezuela, and beyond.
“Our spiritual systems, drum patterns, foods, dances, languages, and resistance movements all mirror each other because we come from one cultural foundation,” Oliver says in the video. “European invaders scattered us, but they couldn’t scatter our identity.”
She points to DNA evidence showing that 70% of African Americans trace roots to Nigeria, Ghana, Benin, Cameroon, Congo, and Angola—the same zones that shaped Afro-Brazilian and Caribbean cultures.
The message resonates deeply on Independence Day, when Ghanaians and the diaspora celebrate shared heritage and resilience.
Oliver closes with a call to recognition: “We’re not different kinds of Black. We are one African people living in different places. And we are finally remembering that.”
The post has sparked widespread shares and comments across the diaspora, reinforcing the enduring connection between continental Africans and their kin worldwide.
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