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Bright Simons Says History Shows How the Strait of Hormuz Can Be Reopened

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In a sweeping essay on ‘magical realpolitik,’ the Ghanaian policy analyst diagnoses a dangerous strategic amnesia as Iran chokes one of the world’s most vital shipping chokepoints

The Strait of Hormuz is closed again. Oil tankers are avoiding the passage. Global energy markets are bracing for shock. And Western strategists are wringing their hands as though facing an unprecedented crisis.

But here is what they have forgotten, according to renowned policy analyst Bright Simons: Iran tried this before. In 1988, the United States Navy sank half of Iran’s surface fleet in a single afternoon. The strait reopened. Oil flowed.

“Thirty-eight years later, the strait is closed again. And the overwhelming majority of Western strategists, including those who lived through the 1980s tanker war, write and speak as though Iran’s capacity to choke the world’s most important oil chokepoint were some unprecedented riddle rather than a recurring test of naval power with a well-documented resolution,” Simons writes in a provocative new essay titled “Magical Realpolitik: Two Kinds of Facts Wrestle for the Soul of Realism.”

The 1988 Precedent: Operation Praying Mantis

In the spring of 1988, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard began laying mines across the shipping lanes of the Persian Gulf. The Ayatollah’s navy had spent months dissuading tanker traffic from the Strait of Hormuz. Washington responded with the largest convoy operation since the Second World War.

Within a year, the American navy had sunk or crippled half the Iranian surface fleet in a single engagement – Operation Praying Mantis – and Tehran was forced to accept a ceasefire it had rejected for eight years.

The episode was filed away as a footnote to the Iran-Iraq War and largely forgotten except among history buffs.

Simons argues that this forgetting is deeper than it looks. It reveals something about how facts travel – and fail to travel – through the cogs of foreign policy.

Two Kinds of Facts

Simons, one of Ghana’s most respected policy analysts and a prominent voice on global affairs, introduces a framework he calls “magical realpolitik” to explain the phenomenon.

He distinguishes between two species of fact:

  • Expert-mediated facts emerge from structured inquiry, peer review, institutional memory, and the slow accumulation of case studies. Robert Pape’s finding that strategic bombing has never toppled an entrenched regime on its own is an expert-mediated fact.
  • Facts on the ground are workaday, commonplace things visible at the perceptual level – accessible to anyone with eyes and a map. The Strait of Hormuz is closed to most shipping traffic: that is a fact on the ground. Russia occupies parts of eastern Ukraine: fact on the ground.

Both claim residence in the house of realism. Both are, in principle, about the world as it is. But they can pull in opposite directions.

The Liberal Blind Spot

Simons is careful to note that the problem is not limited to populists or authoritarians. Liberal internationalists are equally susceptible.

“Consider the persistent failure of Western strategic commentary to remember that Iran has already tried to close the Strait of Hormuz and was physically dislodged by American naval power,” he writes.

“The tanker war of 1987–88 is not classified information. It is taught in war colleges. And yet the analytical class repeatedly treats Hormuz closures as though they were entering uncharted territory, when the historical precedent points unambiguously to a specific resolution: concentrated naval force, applied with political will, historically reopens the strait.”

America’s Shrinking Navy

Simons notes a crucial complication: the U.S. Navy is not what it was in 1988.

“America’s slimming fleet size – from nearly 1,250 in 1946 to less than 300 today – and overreliance on its technology edge is the real bottleneck here,” he writes. “Not to talk about the Navy’s failure to maintain its minesweepers.”

The expert-mediated overlay – game-theoretic models of escalation, scenario analyses of Chinese and Russian responses, elaborate calculations of oil-market elasticity – buries the ground-level precedent under layers of contingent complexity until the simple, poignant ground-fact disappears.

A Call for Epistemic Discipline

Simons concludes with four implications for strategists and policy advisers:

  1. Epistemic discipline – Every significant strategic assessment should be stress-tested against both species of fact. Where the two conflict, the analyst’s job is to sit with the tension rather than resolve it prematurely.
  2. Narrative skepticism – Wherever a foreign-policy program presents itself as a seamless unity, look for the seams. Fractures are the fuel of analysis.
  3. Historical recovery – Magical realpolitik thrives on amnesia. The antidote is granular, unflattering, specific historical knowledge that resists compression into tidy narratives.
  4. Accepting uncertainty – Realism itself is no longer a stable paradigm. In a world where facts have fractured into competing epistemic registers, the realist claim to privilege “the world as it is” becomes a question rather than an answer. Which world? Whose facts?

“The savvy strategist and analyst resists that enchantment, fact by fact,” Simons writes.

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Ghana’s Nationwide Flood Clean-Up Kicks Off with Slow Start

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ACCRA, Ghana – July 10, 2026 – A two-day nationwide clean-up exercise across seven flood-ravaged regions began Friday morning sluggishly.

Authorities have been urging residents, businesses, and institutions to ramp up participation as teams work to clear refuse, desilt choked drains, and restore public spaces following recent devastating floods.

The exercise, which commenced at 6:00 am local time, will run until 1:00 pm and resume on Saturday, July 11, during the same hours. While early-morning activity in several metropolitan areas was initially subdued, officials report that momentum is gradually building as local assemblies, waste management contractors, security services, and volunteer groups deploy to designated hotspots.

According to the government’s outlined schedule, the first day focuses on Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs), Metropolitan, Municipal and District Assemblies (MMDAs), public and private institutions, educational bodies, and waste management firms.

Saturday’s phase will pivot toward community-led efforts, tapping into residents, traditional authorities, and volunteer networks to drive localized clean-up at the grassroots level.

In a bid to maximize turnout, non-essential shops, markets, and commercial establishments within the seven affected regions have been ordered to shut their doors from 6:00 am to 1:00 pm on both days, with exemptions granted only to essential and emergency service providers.

The Ministry has called on transport operators, religious groups, and corporate entities to actively back the initiative, framing it as a critical step toward restoring safe, hygienic communities after the flooding crisis.

Greater Accra, the epicenter of the recent deluge, hosts the bulk of the operation, with authorities identifying 104 flood-prone and affected locations across 17 assemblies. Key areas include, Ga South (Tetegu, STC, Mallam East, New Weija), Ga Central (Awoshie, Kolegu, Israel, A-Land), Ga North (Pokuase Footbridge, Ofankor Barrier), and Ga East (Dome Market, Abokobi Drain). In the capital’s core, heavy machinery and manual crews are converging on major drainage arteries such as Alajo, Kokomlemle, Pig Farm, Mamobi, Nima Highway, the Kanda stretch to Kawukudi, and the 37 Hospital corridor. Coastal communities like Teshie-Nungua, Prampram, Sege, and Tema West’s industrial and residential zones are also actively participating.

Despite the tepid start, authorities remain optimistic that participation will surge as the morning progresses, setting the stage for an even more robust community-driven effort on Saturday.

The exercise represents the government’s most visible response to the recent flooding emergency, mobilizing public administration and local governance structures to tackle the immediate environmental and health hazards facing affected populations.

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Top 10 Newspaper Front Page Headlines in Ghana Today: Friday, July 10, 2026

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Top 10 news stories on Ghanaian newspaper front pages dated Friday, July 10, 2026.

1. GHC350m Contingency Fund Release Controversy

  • Appears in: The New Publisher, The Ghanaian Publisher, The Custodian, The Chronicle
  • Summary: The Attorney General is under fire for allegedly instructing the Bank of Ghana to release GHC 350 million from the frozen Contingency Fund for flood relief, despite a court order blocking it. The Minority in Parliament is demanding a probe and blasting the AG’s “lawless” approach.

2. Abu Trica Extradited to US Over $8m Romance Scam

  • Appears in: Daily Guide, Ghanaian Times, The New Publisher
  • Summary: Socialite Abu Trica has been extradited to the United States to face charges related to an alleged $8 million romance fraud scheme. The extradition happened despite a lack of a court order reversing the decision on the Black Volta project (mentioned in related coverage).

3. GJA Gives NDC Chairman Seven Days to Apologise Over Obaatanpa Radio Attack

  • Appears in: Supreme, Daily Guide
  • Summary: The Ghana Journalists Association (GJA) has given the Central Regional Chairman of the NDC a seven-day ultimatum to apologise for an attack on Obaatanpa Radio. The incident has sparked significant backlash.

4. Gomoa East NPP Rallies Behind Francis Mensah for Chairman

  • Appears in: Supreme, The Ghanaian Publisher, The Custodian, The Metro Lens
  • Summary: The Gomoa East Constituency of the NPP is rallying to elect Francis Mensah as the next Constituency Chairman. This grassroots movement is a major story across multiple papers.

5. Azumah Resources Denies Reversal of Black Volta Project Ownership

  • Appears in: News Centa, The Chronicle, Daily Guide
  • Summary: Azumah Resources Ghana Ltd has refuted false media reports claiming that an ICC ruling reversed the acquisition of the Black Volta project. They insist they still own the project, calling the reports “a big lie.”

6. Amankwaa Donates GHC 100,000 Seed Fund to Ayawaso West NPP

  • Appears in: Supreme, News Centa
  • Summary: Samuel Owusu Amankwaa has donated GHC 100,000 as a seed fund to the Ayawaso West Wuogon NPP constituency ahead of the election of new executives.

7. North Dayi Boils Over: “Joycelyn Must Go” Protests

  • Appears in: Supreme
  • Summary: Residents of North Dayi are up in arms, with protests erupting under the banner “Joycelyn Must Go.” The protesters are chanting “Enough is Enough” over local grievances.

8. NHIA Cracks Down on Illegal Charges in Eastern Region

  • Appears in: The Metro Lens
  • Summary: The National Health Insurance Authority (NHIA) has launched a crackdown on illegal charges being imposed on patients in the Eastern Region. The NHIA Boss is leading the effort.

9. $208m Methamphetamine Scandal

  • Appears in: The Ghanaian Publisher, The Custodian
  • Summary: An MP is demanding the prosecution of officials involved in a $208 million methamphetamine scandal. There are also calls for the government to name officials implicated, with accusations of a cover-up.

10. National Sanitation Exercise and Flood Recovery Clean-Up

  • Appears in: Supreme, The Punch, The New Publisher, News Centa
  • Summary: A nationwide clean-up exercise is underway to aid flood recovery, with various political figures and MCEs rallying residents to participate. The exercise is scheduled for the weekend, with a focus on recovery from recent floods.
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President Mahama Backs Tighter Checks on His Own Office in Upcoming Constitution Vote

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President John Dramani Mahama has announced that Ghana’s Cabinet will meet on Friday, July 10, 2026, to finalise the government’s position paper on constitutional reform.

The process is expected to recommend significant curbs on executive power, including tighter checks on the presidency itself.

The reforms stem from a year-long nationwide consultation conducted by the eight-member Constitutional Review Committee (CRC), chaired by Professor Henry Kwasi Prempeh, which submitted its final report to the President in December 2025.

The committee’s report, titled “Transforming Ghana: From Electoral Democracy to Developmental Democracy,” addressed perennial governance challenges and recommended measures to strengthen institutional checks and balances.

Speaking at the Jubilee House on Tuesday during a farewell ceremony for Switzerland’s outgoing Ambassador to Ghana, Simone Giger, President Mahama confirmed that significant progress had been made.

“I am pleased to inform you that we have made significant progress. Cabinet is scheduled to meet on Friday to finalise the Government’s Position Paper on the Constitutional Review,” President Mahama said.

He explained that once Cabinet concludes its work, the Legal Counsel and the Attorney-General would take one or two weeks to consolidate the document. It would then be handed over, together with the CRC’s report, to the Constitutional Review Implementation Committee to begin implementation.

President Mahama described the 1992 Constitution as one of the finest Ghana has ever had, noting that it had provided the foundation for the Fourth Republic — the longest-serving republic in the country’s history.

“We therefore believe that any amendments to the Constitution should strengthen it further and ensure that it remains a living document capable of serving Ghana effectively for the next three decades and beyond,” he said.

The Constitutional Review Committee’s recommendations are understood to include proposals to separate the Executive from the Legislature — preventing Members of Parliament from being appointed as ministers — as well as measures to decentralise power and enhance accountability.

The committee also recommended amendments to Chapter 25 of the Constitution to introduce a third route for amending entrenched provisions.

Ambassador Giger, who has supported the constitutional reform process throughout her four-year tenure in Ghana, welcomed the progress.

“We have always rooted for Ghana because we genuinely believe that constitutional reform is central to the country’s future development,” she said, adding, “If Ghana succeeds in adopting a truly people’s constitution, one that decentralises power, strengthens checks and balances on the Executive, and incorporates the many important reforms currently under consideration, I believe the future of this country will be exceptionally bright.”

President Mahama also used the occasion to acknowledge Switzerland’s support for Ghana’s small and medium enterprises, particularly in agro-processing and agribusiness, an area he described as one of the missing links in the country’s agricultural value chain.

The constitutional review process, initiated in 2025, follows two previous attempts that failed to build sufficient consensus for significant change.

The government has pledged to establish the Constitutional Review Implementation Committee to oversee the roll-out of the reforms.

Once the position paper is finalised and consolidated, it will be made public and subjected to the necessary constitutional and parliamentary scrutiny.

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