Perspectives
Coup contagion? A rash of African power grabs suggests copycats are taking note of others’ success

Salah Ben Hammou, Rice University and Jonathan Powell, University of Kentucky
In a scene that has become familiar across parts of Africa of late, a group of armed men in military garb appeared on state TV on Dec. 7, 2025, to announce that they had suspended the constitution and seized control.
This time it was the West African nation of Benin, and the coup was relatively short-lived, with the government regaining full control a day later. But a week before, senior military officers in Guinea-Bissau had more success, deposing President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and effectively annulling the Nov. 23 election in which both Embaló and the main opposition leader had claimed victory. A month earlier it was Madagascar, where a mass Gen-Z uprising led to the elite CAPSAT unit of the Malagasy military ousting President Andry Rajoelina and installing Colonel Michael Randrianirina as leader.
The cluster of coup attempts follows a broader pattern. Since 2020, there have been 11 successful military takeovers in Africa: one each in Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Niger, Sudan, Chad, Madagascar and Gabon; and two each in Burkina Faso and Mali. Benin represents the fifth failed coup over the same period.
The prevalence of military takeovers led United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres to warn as far back as 2021 of a coup “epidemic.”
But can coups, like the pathogens of many epidemics, be contagious? Certainly observers around the world continue to ask whether a military takeover in one country can influence the likelihood of another one happening elsewhere.
Do coups spread?
Cross-national research offers little firm evidence that a coup in one country directly increases the chances of another. And some scholars remain skeptical that such a phenomenon exists. Political scientist Naunihal Singh, for instance, argues that the recent wave’s coup plotters are drawing less from contemporary events than from their own countries’ long histories of military intervention.
In addition, he suggests that any observed regional cluster mostly reflects shared underlying conditions. For example, the countries across the Sahel region that have been the center of post-2020 African coups share a common set of coup-prone pressures: chronic insecurity driven by insurgencies, weak state capacity and widespread frustration over quality of governance.
Likewise, Michael Miller and colleagues at George Washington University, in a broader analysis, contend that would-be plotters pay closer attention to domestic dynamics than to foreign coups when deciding whether to move against their own governments.
As scholars of military coups, we recently explored the phenomenon and have come to a different conclusion.
Our forthcoming study argues that would-be plotters do indeed pay close attention when contemporaries seize power. A number of dynamics, however, could keep a statistical trend from being realized.
For one, statistical modeling typically requires contagion to occur within a tight temporal window, often 1 to 3 years.
Our findings challenge this approach. A wave of so-called “Free Officers” coups – military takeovers led by junior or mid-ranking nationalist officers, inspired by Egypt’s 1952 Free Officers movement – is a widely invoked example of contagion. The original Free Officers ousted King Farouk and went on to abolish the monarchy and end British influence in Egypt.
However, it took a full six years before a second “Free Officers” coup occurred in the region, in Iraq in 1958.

Rather than blindly follow the lead of Egypt’s coupists, would-be copycats watched closely, took notes and moved only when two factors lined up: the rewards appeared to be worth the risk, and they obtained the ability to make a takeover possible.
In the case of the post-1952 Middle East, the potential “rewards” of emulating Egypt’s Free Officers were not immediately apparent, even in countries with circumstances very similar to Egypt’s.
It wasn’t until the original Free Officers Movement’s leader, Colonel Gamal Abdel Nasser, emerged as a revolutionary icon in the region that others attempted to emulate his success. Nasser’s status grew further through his anti-colonial sentiments and victories, like his handling of the Suez Crisis of 1956.
As Nasser’s influence grew, the perceived value of a military takeover increased, and Free Officers-inspired plots quickly proliferated against the region’s monarchies. Six years after the Egyptian coup, the first copycat coup succeeded in Iraq, followed by additional successes in Yemen, Libya and Sudan between 1962 and 1969.
A further complication to establishing a firm trend is that the success of one takeover may actually hinder the immediate progress of another. After all, would-be copycats are not the only observers.
Vulnerable leaders and their allies can take cues from coups in other countries to try to mitigate their spread at home.
Thwarted conspiracies in Jordan and Saudi Arabia, which were uncovered between 1955 and 1969, demonstrated that while the sentiment to emulate Egypt’s coup was widespread, not all plotters had the capacity to act. Some governments were better prepared to block these attempts. Foreign partners like the United States and Great Britain also played no small role in helping shore up their monarchical allies against coup plots.
Africa’s coup wave
The case of the Free Officers Movement shows that plotters wait for clear signals that a coup is worth the risk. In Africa today, those signals are more immediate, even without a monumental figure like Egypt’s Nasser.
Coupists now see visible domestic support for military takeovers and muted international consequences for those who seize power.
It is increasingly clear to us that the region has seen a large increase in public support for military rule during this post-2020 wave.
Military coupists like Burkina Faso’s Ibrahim Traoré and Mali’s Assimi Goïta have not only attracted domestic support but also regional popularity, lauded for their anti-colonial rhetoric against France and their willingness to confront the Economic Community of West Africa States.
Data from Afrobarometer, which has regularly asked about respondents’ positions on having military rule, illustrate this shift clearly.
In the survey wave that ended in 2013, less than 11% of respondents in Benin said they supported or strongly supported army rule. This nearly doubled to 19% by 2021 and has now tripled, with 1 in 3 people in Benin expressing support for military rule. While a majority still opposes military rule, the direction of this change is significant.
These attitudes are reinforced by military leaders’ promises to “clean up” corrupt or ineffective governments. In Madagascar, for example, over 60% of citizens in 2024 said it was permissible for the armed forces to remove leaders who abuse power.
Highly visible images of cheering pro-military crowds in countries like Niger and Gabon further signal that a takeover can gain public support.
International indifference
The international signals are just as important. From the near-absent reaction to the Zimbabwean military’s removal of Robert Mugabe in 2017 to the lukewarm response to Chad’s military takeover in 2021, these cases suggest that international punishment can be temporary or even nonexistent.
The message is reinforced when coup leaders who are initially condemned, like Madagascar’s Randrianirina, later gain acceptance from regional organizations like the South African Development Community. In Guinea-Bissau, attention on last month’s coup has somehow seemed to focus more on President Embaló’s alleged involvement in the coup than on the military’s unconstitutional seizure of power.
And the lessons drawn from international responses involve more than just the seizure of power. Contemporary military leaders are staying in power much longer than their predecessors in the early 2000s, either by indefinitely delaying elections or by directly contesting them.
Although the African Union’s framework specifically forbids coup leaders from standing in elections, there has been virtually no consequences for coupists consolidating their rule via elections in places like Chad and Gabon.
This is not lost on would-be plotters, who see their contemporaries seize and legitimize their authority with minimal pushback.
To some degree, the spread of coups depends on how they are received. And in the case of the recent rash of military takeovers in Africa, the international community and domestic policymakers have done little in the way of stemming that spread.
Salah Ben Hammou, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Rice University and Jonathan Powell, Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Kentucky
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Commentary
More Than 9,000 Ghanaian Children Have Been Treated for Clubfoot, Yet Many More Are Still Being Left Behind
Article by Nana Afua Adutwumwaa Adjetey, Program Manager, Ghana Clubfoot Program (CHAG–Hope Walks Ghana)
As Ghana joins the global community to commemorate World Clubfoot Day on June 3, there is an important story that deserves national attention.
It is the story of thousands of Ghanaian children who have been given the opportunity to walk, run, play, attend school, and pursue their dreams because they received treatment for clubfoot.
It is also the story of many other children who continue to miss that opportunity because of delayed diagnosis, stigma, misinformation, and lack of awareness.
Clubfoot is one of the most common congenital disabilities affecting children worldwide. It is a condition present at birth in which one or both feet are twisted inward and downward. If left untreated, a child may face lifelong challenges with walking, education, employment, and social inclusion.
Yet clubfoot is also one of the most treatable childhood disabilities.
When identified early and treated correctly, children born with clubfoot can live healthy, active, and productive lives.
A Hidden Challenge Affecting Hundreds of Ghanaian Families

In Ghana, an estimated 1,000 babies are born with clubfoot every year.
Many of these children are born into families who have never heard of the condition. Others are born in communities where myths, misconceptions, and stigma still surround childhood disabilities.
Some parents are told their child will eventually “grow out of it.”
Others are encouraged to seek traditional remedies before medical care.
In some cases, families hide affected children for fear of judgment and discrimination.
Unfortunately, these delays come at a cost.
Clubfoot treatment is most effective when started soon after birth. Every week and month of delay can make treatment more difficult and increase the risk of long-term disability.
The Cases We Meet Every Day
Across our clubfoot clinics in Ghana, we meet families whose stories reveal the challenges that still exist.
We meet mothers who travel long distances after hearing about treatment through a friend, church member, radio programme, or social media post.
We meet caregivers who have spent months searching for answers because they did not know where to go for help.
We meet children who arrive years after birth because no one identified the condition early enough.
Most concerning, we continue to encounter situations where clubfoot was not recognised at birth or families were not informed that treatment was available.
Many parents tell us they were never referred. Others say they were unaware clubfoot could be treated at all.
These experiences remind us that awareness remains one of the greatest barriers to eliminating disability caused by clubfoot.
The Good News: Treatment Works; And It Is Free

Despite these challenges, there is tremendous reason for hope.
The Ghana Clubfoot Program, implemented by the Christian Health Association of Ghana (CHAG) in partnership with Hope Walks, has been transforming lives since 2008.
Most importantly, treatment is provided completely free of charge for children under five years of age at CHAG–Hope Walks partner clinics across Ghana.
No child should be denied the opportunity to walk because of a family’s inability to pay.
Over the past 18 years, more than 9,000 children born with clubfoot have received treatment and care through the programme.
That means more than 9,000 children now have the opportunity to walk with confidence, attend school, participate in sports, and live productive lives.
Behind every number is a story:
A child who can now run with friends.
A student who can walk to school.
A parent whose fears have been replaced with hope.
A family whose future has been transformed.
The treatment follows the internationally recognised Ponseti Method, which uses a series of gentle casts to gradually correct the position of the foot, followed by a brace to maintain correction and prevent relapse.
When treatment begins early, success rates are extremely high.
These successes demonstrate a simple but powerful truth:
Clubfoot is treatable. Treatment is available. And treatment is free.
The Critical Role of Health Professionals
World Clubfoot Day is also an opportunity to celebrate the dedication of health professionals who change lives every day.
Midwives, nurses, doctors, physiotherapists, orthopaedic specialists, community health nurses, and Parent Advisors all play a vital role in ensuring children receive treatment early.
For many children, the journey begins with a health worker who identifies clubfoot at birth and makes a referral.
A few moments of observation can change the course of a child’s life forever.
We therefore encourage all healthcare professionals to make clubfoot screening part of every newborn assessment and to ensure every identified child is referred promptly for treatment.
Breaking the Stigma

As a nation, we must confront the stigma that continues to surround disability.
Clubfoot is not a curse.
It is not caused by wrongdoing.
It is not a punishment.
It is a medical condition that can be treated successfully.
Families should never feel ashamed to seek help.
Communities should support parents rather than judge them.
Children born with clubfoot deserve the same opportunities, dignity, and inclusion as every other child.
A National Call to Action
As we commemorate World Clubfoot Day 2026, we call on all Ghanaians to become part of the solution.
We call on health workers to identify and refer clubfoot cases immediately after birth.
We call on parents and caregivers to seek treatment as early as possible.
We call on religious leaders, traditional leaders, and community influencers to help raise awareness and eliminate stigma.
We call on media organisations to continue educating the public about clubfoot and the availability of free treatment.
We call on policymakers and health stakeholders to strengthen support for early detection, disability inclusion, and child health services.
Many families are still unaware that clubfoot treatment is available free of charge in Ghana. This lack of awareness continues to delay treatment for children who could otherwise receive life-changing care at no cost.
Over the past 18 years, the Ghana Clubfoot Program has demonstrated that clubfoot can be treated successfully.
Our challenge now is to ensure every child born with clubfoot is identified early enough to benefit from that treatment.
No child should be denied the opportunity to walk because of lack of information.
No family should suffer in silence because they do not know help is available.
This World Clubfoot Day, let us commit to one simple but powerful message:
SEE EARLY. TREAT EARLY. WALK FREELY.
For information on free clubfoot treatment in Ghana:
Ghana Clubfoot Program (CHAG–Hope Walks Ghana)
📞 024 487 9948
“Over 9,000 children have already been given the chance to walk through treatment. Our challenge now is to ensure that no child is left behind because of late detection, stigma, or lack of information.”
Mrs. Nana Afua Adutwumwaa Adjetey, Program Manager, Ghana Clubfoot Program (CHAG–Hope Walks Ghana)
Perspectives
IMANI PULSE: Ghana’s Political Conversation Is Shifting From Personalities to Performance
Ghanaians are done choosing sides based on personalities. The latest IMANI-PULSE analysis of 10,000 online conversations shows the debate has shifted to a sharper question: Who can actually deliver?
The latest IMANI-PULSE Sentiment Analysis Report for May 2026 reveals a notable transformation in Ghana’s online political discourse.
Drawing on 10,000 mentions across Facebook, X, TikTok, YouTube, podcasts, web sources, news feeds, and other digital platforms, the analysis found that public conversations are increasingly focused on governance outcomes, policy delivery, economic credibility, international engagement, and political preparedness rather than political personalities.
The report recorded an almost perfectly neutral overall sentiment score of -0.01, suggesting that citizens are becoming less emotionally partisan and more focused on evaluating leadership performance and accountability.
Key findings include:
🔸 Policy discussions dominated political discourse, accounting for 78.2% of classified conversations.
🔸 Infrastructure delivery and accountability emerged as major drivers of engagement.
🔸 Foreign policy and international engagement became the dominant issue cluster during the second half of May.
🔸 Economic credibility and IMF-related accountability remained central themes.
🔸 Opposition rebuilding and political preparedness increasingly shaped discussions around future elections.
“Rather than asking who they support, citizens appeared to be asking whether leaders can deliver, whether promises have been fulfilled, and whether competing political actors possess the credibility required to address future challenges,” the report revealed.
The report concludes that Ghana’s online political conversation is becoming increasingly issue-driven, with citizens prioritising delivery, accountability, economic management, and governance outcomes over partisan loyalty.
About IMANI Africa:
IMANI Africa has carved a niche in Ghana’s policy environment by producing objective, independent analysis and critique across multiple disciplines using tried and tested methodologies. Through effective communication and partnerships with public-spirited media and civil society, IMANI works to shape national, regional, and global agendas in order to close the “citizen participation gap” in governance. With over 50 media allies across Africa, IMANI distinguishes itself through its media impact and its capacity to reach ordinary citizens via mass-circulation newspapers, the internet, and popular television and radio shows. Pound for pound, IMANI Africa has the highest media profile of any think tank in West Africa.
Commentary
How Ghana Forced the Vatican’s Hand: What Pope Leo XIV Said and Didn’t Say in Historic Apology for Church’s Role in Slavery
When Pope Leo XIV issued an unprecedented apology on Monday for the Holy See’s role in legitimizing centuries of slavery, it did not happen in a vacuum.
Just two months earlier, Ghana had achieved what many thought impossible: convincing the United Nations General Assembly to declare the trafficking and enslavement of Africans “the gravest crime against humanity.”
That resolution, spearheaded by Ghana’s President John Dramani Mahama and adopted with 123 votes in favor on March 25, 2026, created the political and moral architecture that made the Vatican’s apology nearly inevitable. The Holy See, after all, could hardly ignore a world body declaring that the system its own 15th-century papal bulls had legitimized now ranks as humanity’s worst offense.
“The discussions surrounding the Resolution included debates about historical references to the Church, Papal Bulls and the transatlantic slave trade, making the Pope’s apology especially significant,” Ghana’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement welcoming Leo XIV’s encyclical, Magnifica Humanitas (Magnificent Humanity).
The government described the Pope’s apology as “an act of moral courage” and a significant contribution to “the global pursuit of historical truth, justice and human dignity.”

What the Pope Said—And Didn’t Say
In his 82-page encyclical, released on May 25, 2026, Pope Leo XIV did something no pontiff had done before: he explicitly acknowledged that past popes had given European sovereigns explicit authority to subjugate and enslave “infidels.”
“Already in the early modern period, the Apostolic See of Rome, responding to requests from Sovereigns, intervened several times in order to regulate and legitimize forms of subjugation, and, in certain cases, the enslavement of ‘infidels,'” Leo wrote.
He acknowledged that “in antiquity and the Middle Ages many individuals and even ecclesiastical institutions had slaves,” and that it took “eighteen centuries” for the Church to explicitly recognize slavery’s full incompatibility with human dignity.
“It is impossible not to feel deep sorrow when contemplating the immense suffering and humiliation endured by so many,” Leo wrote. “For this, in the name of the Church, I sincerely ask for pardon.”
Previous popes had apologized for Christians’ involvement in the slave trade. St. John Paul II, during a 1985 visit to Cameroon, asked forgiveness of Africans on behalf of Christians who participated, and in 1992 on Gorée Island, Senegal, he denounced the “tragedy of a civilization that called itself Christian.” But no pope had ever publicly acknowledged—much less apologized for—the role that past pontiffs played in legitimizing the trade.
Shannen Dee Williams, a historian at the University of Dayton and author of Subversive Habits, called the apology a “monumental step toward the essential truth-telling and reparation that many Catholics have prayed and worked to witness.”
A History of Apologies: The Growing Chorus
Leo XIV’s apology joins a growing list of institutional acknowledgments of complicity in slavery and the slave trade. While each has been significant in its own right, none has carried the full weight of a formal, institutional acknowledgment from the Vatican—until now.
The Church of England (2006): On February 8, 2006, the Church of England’s General Synod voted 238 to 0 to apologize for the Church’s role in the transatlantic slave trade. The vote acknowledged that Anglican leaders owned thousands of slaves on plantations in Barbados and that the Society for the Propagation of the Gospel in Foreign Parts branded enslaved people with hot irons bearing the letters “SOCIETY.” The apology came 199 years after Britain abolished the slave trade, and its unanimous passage was described as a “wake-up call” to pursue concrete solutions.
The U.S. House of Representatives (2008): For the first time in American history, the U.S. House of Representatives formally apologized for slavery and the era of Jim Crow segregation. The non-binding resolution expressed regret for the “fundamental injustice, cruelty, brutality, and inhumanity of slavery” and for laws that “established a system of de jure and de facto segregation and discrimination”. The Senate never passed a companion resolution, leaving the apology incomplete.
JPMorgan Chase (2005): The American banking giant apologized for its predecessor banks’ involvement in the slave trade, acknowledging that two Louisiana banks it had acquired accepted enslaved people as collateral on loans. The company established a $5 million scholarship program for Black students in Louisiana.
Greene King and Lloyd’s of London (2020): In the wake of the Black Lives Matter protests, the British pub chain and the insurance market both apologized and committed to reparations after the Legacies of British Slavery database revealed their historic ties to the trade. Greene King, founded by a prominent slave trader, pledged to invest in Black and minority ethnic communities and create new programs to support diversity.
The Hudson’s Bay Company (2021): Canada’s oldest corporation launched its “Charter for Change” initiative, committing $30 million over ten years to partnerships advancing racial equality, with a focus on Black Canadians and Indigenous peoples. The company acknowledged its “roles in the colonization of Canada” but stopped short of a formal apology specifically for slavery, despite research showing its early governors amassed wealth through West Indian slave labor and its founder, Samuel Cunard, profited from goods produced by enslaved people.
The Bank of Nova Scotia and CIBC (2020s): Canadian banks with founding ties to the slave trade—Scotiaba’s first president William Lawson amassed wealth through West Indian trade, and 13 of its 17 founders did the same—have funded Black community programs but have not issued formal apologies or reparations.
Why Ghana’s Resolution Changed Everything
The UN resolution, adopted on March 25, 2026, was the culmination of months of diplomatic effort led by President Mahama. It passed with 123 votes in favor, 52 abstentions, and only three countries—Argentina, Israel, and the United States—voting against it.
“The resolution is not about apportioning blame across generations or nations,” Ghana’s Foreign Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa said at the time. “It is about creating space for truth, education, and a more honest global conversation”.
For the Vatican, that conversation became impossible to ignore. The resolution specifically noted the role of religious institutions—including the Catholic Church—in legitimizing the trade. Ghana’s government explicitly linked the two events in its statement welcoming the Pope’s apology, saying the discussions at the UN “included debates about historical references to the Church, Papal Bulls and the transatlantic slave trade.”
From Apology to Action
As the Vatican’s first U.S.-born pope—a man whose own family history, according to genealogical research published by Henry Louis Gates Jr., includes both enslaved people and slaveholders—Leo XIV acknowledged that words alone are insufficient.
The encyclical connects the historical apology to contemporary forms of slavery, warning that “new forms of subjugation and slavery” have emerged “in the context of digital development” and the technological revolution.
Leo writes that the Church must condemn all forms of trafficking “if we want to avoid the need to ask for pardon again in the future for having failed to respect the treasure of human dignity.”
Ghana is already moving to fill the gap between apology and action. The government has announced plans to host a High-Level Consultative Conference in Accra from June 17 to 19, 2026, under President Mahama’s leadership, focusing on “next steps following the adoption of the UN Resolution and sustaining global engagement on historical justice and reconciliation.”
The Rev. Christopher J. Kellerman, a Jesuit priest and author of All Oppression Shall Cease: A History of Slavery, Abolitionism, and the Catholic Church, welcomed Leo’s apology but cautioned that more is needed.
“Pope Leo has strengthened the moral credibility of the church with this admission and apology today,” he told the Associated Press. “Hopefully, a future document will explain in more detail the church’s involvement with slaveholding.”
For descendants of enslaved Africans—in Ghana, in the Caribbean, in the United States, and across the diaspora—the convergence of Ghana’s diplomatic victory and the Vatican’s institutional apology represents something unprecedented: a moment when the world’s highest moral authorities, secular and religious, have aligned in acknowledging the truth.
Whether that truth translates into reparative justice remains the open question of our time.
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