Global Update
A Major US-Russia Nuclear Treaty Expired on February 5, Now Stalled Talks Has Plunged the World into Heightened Nuclear Risk
As the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) officially expired on February 5, 2026, the world enters a period of heightened uncertainty.
Without binding limits on the nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States—the two largest nuclear powers, global nuclear risks have been heightened significantly.
The treaty, which capped deployed strategic warheads and delivery systems, has been a cornerstone of global arms control since 2010, but its lapse follows years of compliance disputes, geopolitical tensions, and failed extension efforts.
Current Status and Outlook
The treaty’s expiration leaves no formal constraints on the deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers capable of delivering nuclear warheads. In September 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled Russia’s willingness to voluntarily adhere to the treaty’s limits for one year post-expiration, provided the US reciprocates. The US responded positively but, as of early February 2026, had not issued an official reply, according to Kremlin sources.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that “in a few days, the world may find itself in a more dangerous situation than before,” stressing the urgency for dialogue.
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov attributed the crisis to longstanding issues, including US allegations of Russian non-compliance and broader geopolitical frictions stemming from the Ukraine conflict. Analysts view the outlook as precarious: without renewal, both nations could resume unconstrained nuclear buildups, potentially sparking a new arms race and undermining global stability. Efforts for compartmentalized talks—separating arms control from other disputes—have stalled, with Russia insisting on addressing NATO’s nuclear capabilities, including those of France and the UK.
Breaking Down the Treaty: Weapons and Limits
New START regulated strategic offensive arms, focusing on nuclear warheads, delivery vehicles (ballistic and cruise missiles, air-dropped bombs), and launch platforms with ranges over 5,500 km. Covered systems included:
- ICBMs: US models like Minuteman II–III and Peacekeeper; Russian variants such as Topol-family, R-36M, and RS-24 Yars.
- SLBMs: US Trident II; Russian R-29R, R-39, R-39RM, and R-30.
- Heavy bombers: Russian Tu-95MS and Tu-160; US B-52G, B-52H, B-1B, and B-2A.
Limits were set at no more than 700 deployed delivery vehicles, 1,550 deployed warheads, and 800 deployed and non-deployed launchers and bombers. Compliance was monitored through a Bilateral Consultative Commission and on-site inspections, though tactical nuclear weapons, missile defenses, and non-nuclear strategic arms (e.g., hypersonic missiles) were excluded.
Brief History of the Treaty
Signed on April 8, 2010, in Prague by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and US President Barack Obama, New START replaced the 1991 START I and 2002 SORT treaties. It entered force in 2011 and was hailed as a key achievement in post-Cold War arms control.
By February 2018, both parties reported compliance: Russia with 527 deployed vehicles, 1,444 warheads, and 779 launchers/bombers; the US with similar figures. The treaty was extended in February 2021 by the Biden administration without amendments, set to expire on February 5, 2026.
Compliance Disputes and Alleged US Violations
Russia has accused the US of violations, claiming the US illegitimately excluded 56 Trident II SLBM launchers and 41 B-52H bombers from counts, resulting in an excess of 101 delivery vehicles. As of September 1, 2022, US data (659 deployed vehicles, 1,420 warheads, 800 launchers/bombers) was disputed by Moscow as inaccurate. On January 31, 2023, the US accused Russia of non-compliance by denying inspections and postponing consultations.
China’s Position on New START
China has repeatedly declined invitations to join, arguing its nuclear arsenal is approximately 20 times smaller than those of Russia and the US. Beijing has stated it would consider participation only if the superpowers reduce their stockpiles to China’s level.
Extension Efforts and the Crisis
The 2021 extension was straightforward, but relations deteriorated amid the Ukraine conflict. Inspections, paused during the COVID-19 pandemic, were not resumed due to US sanctions, airspace closures, and visa denials for Russian inspectors. In June 2023, the US froze nuclear data sharing with Russia. US proposals for “compartmentalized” talks—isolating arms control from Ukraine—were rejected by Russia.
In July 2025, US President Donald Trump advocated for trilateral limits with Russia and China, but progress stalled.
Russia’s Suspension and Reasons
On February 21, 2023, Putin announced Russia’s suspension (not withdrawal) of participation, citing:
- Western arms supplies to Ukraine and targeting assistance against Russian bases.
- US and NATO aims to strategically defeat Russia.
- The need to include French and UK arsenals in discussions.
- US obstacles to inspections.
- US considerations for resuming nuclear tests.
The suspension highlighted deepening mistrust, with Russia maintaining it could return if conditions improve.
The expiration of New START on February 5, 2026, without a successor risks eroding decades of arms control progress, potentially escalating global nuclear tensions. Experts urge renewed dialogue to prevent an arms race, though geopolitical divides remain a formidable barrier.
Global Update
Tragedy As Three Children Found Dead in Vehicle Boot in Ghana
Police in Ghana’s Northern Region have launched a murder investigation into the deaths of three young children whose bodies were discovered in the boot of a vehicle at the Koblimahagu Zoo in the Tamale Metropolis, after a preliminary autopsy indicated they did not die of natural causes.
The children, Dauda Abdul Aziz, 3; Saani Alsharaf, 5; and Dauda Fadilan, 7, were found dead on Monday morning, Oct. 5, in a black Hyundai Tucson with registration number AS 1770-14.
They had reportedly left home on Sunday to attend Islamic classes but never returned.
According to reports, preliminary autopsy findings suggest the children may have been murdered. However, a toxicological examination is still required to establish the full circumstances and possible cause of death.
“The autopsy revealed they did not die a natural death,” a source familiar with the investigation told Joy News. “There is a need for toxicological examination to be conducted to fully establish the facts.”
Vehicle Owner Arrested
The owner of the vehicle, a member of the Ghana Immigration Service, has been arrested and transported to Accra to assist with investigations. The officer reportedly told police that the vehicle had been stuck in mud for five days.
Police said the vehicle was found stuck in mud, with the driver’s door and rear passenger door open, while the boot and other doors were locked. The vehicle has been secured for further forensic examination as investigators work to determine how the children ended up inside the boot.
National Response
The Inspector-General of Police has deployed forensic and crime scene experts to Tamale to support the investigation. Homicide investigators and intelligence officers have also been dispatched to assist the Northern Regional Police Command.
The teams are expected to examine the vehicle and other evidence at the scene as investigators work to establish the circumstances surrounding the children’s deaths.
The case has generated widespread concern in the Northern Region, where residents are calling for a thorough and transparent investigation.
Key Facts
- Location: Koblimahagu Zoo, Tamale Metropolis, Northern Region, Ghana
- Victims: Dauda Abdul Aziz (3), Saani Alsharaf (5), Dauda Fadilan (7)
- Discovery: Bodies found in the boot of a black Hyundai Tucson on Monday morning
- Suspect: Vehicle owner, a Ghana Immigration Service officer, arrested and transported to Accra
- Official Status: Murder investigation opened; toxicology results pending
- Response: Inspector-General of Police deployed forensic and crime scene experts to Tamale
Global Update
Death of Lab Worker From Suspected Pneumonic Plague in Siberia Prompts Quarantine of Nearly 200 People
A laboratory technician at a Siberian anti-plague research institute has died from a suspected case of pneumonic plague, prompting Russian authorities to place nearly 200 people under medical observation and drawing international attention as the United States confirmed it is closely monitoring the situation.
The 28-year-old woman, identified by local media as Darya Shipilova, worked at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute of Siberia and the Far East. She reportedly fell ill after accidentally breaking a test tube containing live bacteria on September 25, according to the exiled news outlet Lyudi Baikala and pro-Kremlin broadcaster REN TV.
She was hospitalized on September 29 in Shelekhov, a town near Irkutsk, with symptoms of severe pneumonia, placed on a ventilator, and died on October 2.
Alexei Tsydenov, the governor of the neighboring Buryatia region, initially wrote on his Telegram channel that a woman had “died, maybe of the plague,” later adding the word “probably” to his message. He also sought to reassure the public by stating that the woman had not travelled to Buryatia and that her infection was unrelated to his region.
Russia’s consumer safety watchdog, Rospotrebnadzor, issued a more cautious statement, saying the employee had been diagnosed with “pneumonia of unknown aetiology” and that expanded testing found no microorganisms associated with her professional activities. Authorities have not officially confirmed a plague diagnosis.
Mass Quarantine and Emergency Measures
The Shelekhov district hospital was placed under quarantine pending an assessment by a special commission. At least 197 people who may have had contact with the woman were placed under medical isolation, including more than 100 in hospital wards. Residents reported seeing people in protective suits, masks, and gloves in the streets, and masks were distributed in kindergartens, according to local media.
Authorities also canceled planned public events in Irkutsk, and law enforcement reportedly opened a criminal investigation into potential health safety violations resulting in death.
International Response
The US Department of State told Al Jazeera it was “monitoring the situation closely with the CDC and our other interagency partners,” and encouraged Russian authorities to “share accurate information quickly and openly”. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio later said the situation was “not a cause for alarm” but “something that needs to be watched”.
What Is Pneumonic Plague?
Pneumonic plague is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, usually found in small mammals and their fleas. It is the most virulent and least common form of plague, affecting the lungs and capable of spreading person-to-person through respiratory droplets. Symptoms can appear within 24 hours of exposure and include severe respiratory distress, coughing with bloody sputum, chest pain, and rapid progression to lung failure and shock if untreated. The World Health Organization notes that pneumonic plague is invariably fatal if not treated early, but recovery rates are high if detected within 24 hours of symptom onset. The most recent case of pneumonic plague in Russia was recorded in 2016 in the Altai Republic.
Key Facts
- Location: Irkutsk region, Siberia, Russia
- Victim: 28-year-old female laboratory technician at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute
- Quarantine: Nearly 200 people under medical observation
- Official Status: Russian authorities describe the case as “pneumonia of unknown aetiology”; plague not officially confirmed
- International Monitoring: US State Department and CDC tracking the situation
Global Update
U.S. Completes Withdrawal of Last Troops from Iraq After More Than Two Decades
Final departure marks end of Operation Inherent Resolve, with Iran and allied militias seen as key beneficiaries
All remaining U.S. troops are set to leave their bases in Iraq by tomorrow, ending a military presence that has spanned more than two decades and leaving a power vacuum that analysts say will benefit Iran and its allied militias.
U.S. soldiers were first deployed to Iraq in 2003 in the operation that overthrew Saddam Hussein’s government. After withdrawing for a few years, U.S. forces redeployed in 2014 to fight ISIS under Operation Inherent Resolve.
Victoria Taylor, who served as U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary for Iraq and Iran during the Biden administration and now directs the Iraq Initiative at the Atlantic Council, told The World that the 2003 invasion was launched amid debates over whether Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction.
“There was certainly a discussion about regime change and the possibility of also bringing democracy to Iraq,” Taylor told The World. “I think the reality, of course, was much more complicated as the U.S. learned that some of the intelligence on which the assessments about weapons of mass destruction were based were faulty.”
She described Iraq today as “a flawed democracy” and “a complicated democracy,” adding that the government put in place “has not always been pro-U.S. or pro-Western in its approach.”
Operation Inherent Resolve: A Success?
Taylor said the 2014 mission to defeat ISIS could be considered successful. At the time U.S. troops returned, ISIS had taken over a third of Iraqi territory and held significant territory in Syria. The U.S.-led coalition was able to retake territory and “significantly degrade ISIS in Iraq as well as in Syria.”
By the end of the mission, there were under 5,000 troops, primarily focused on supporting the counter-ISIS mission, providing logistical support to operations in Syria and within Iraq.
Under the withdrawal agreement negotiated during the Biden administration, all counter-ISIS operations under Operation Inherent Resolve would end in September 2025, with one remaining year for troops to stay based in the Kurdistan region in Erbil to support Syria operations.
“The focus was on trying to secure as long a lead time as possible and then to retain the possibility that the U.S. military could remain in Iraq in a bilateral capacity,” Taylor said.
She noted that the Trump administration took a different approach, viewing Iraq as an example of the “forever war” that President Trump has said the U.S. should avoid.
Kurds Lose Sense of Protection
For the Kurds, the U.S. presence provided “a sense of protection against the possibility of Iranian attacks, which became very vivid during the Iran war as the region was continually hit by drones, rockets and missiles, both from the Iran-backed militias, but also directly from Iran,” Taylor said.
She added that the U.S. presence was also “very important symbolically as the Kurds continue to believe that their autonomy is at risk.”
Iran Benefits from Withdrawal
Taylor said Iran has been eager to pressure the U.S. military presence in the Middle East and has done so effectively in Iraq by arming militias that have launched numerous attacks against U.S. military and diplomatic facilities.
“The ultimate goal was to see the departure of U.S. troops, which I believe Iran views as a significant victory,” she said. “At a time when the U.S. is at war with Iran, it is giving up its foothold in Iraq to fight Iran-backed militias.”
She said the Iran war “has not prompted any reconsideration of the U.S. military presence and what role that could have played in the broader regional context.”
Iraq’s Balancing Act Increasingly Untenable
Iraq is one of the few countries with strong ties to both the U.S. and Iran. Taylor said maintaining those ties is “becoming increasingly untenable at a moment when the U.S. and Iran are in active conflict.”
She said the Trump administration is applying “greater pressure” to disarm militias and undermine Iranian influence, effectively trying to force the Iraqi government to pick a side.
“I think it will be increasingly challenging for the Iraqi government to maintain any kind of balance between these two powerful neighbors,” Taylor said.
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