Business
Ghana’s Spot as World’s Second Largest Cocoa Producer Threatened by Nigeria, Ecuador, and Indonesia
For generations, Ghana has stood as a titan of global cocoa production, its name synonymous with the high-quality beans that sweeten the world’s chocolate.
But a perfect storm of financial crisis, aging farms, and rising competitors is threatening to knock the nation from its long-held position as the world’s second-largest producer, behind only Côte d’Ivoire.
An alarming combination of declining harvests, mounting debt at the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), and aggressive expansion by rival nations has placed Ghana’s cocoa crown in serious jeopardy.
President John Dramani Mahama recently convened an emergency Cabinet meeting to address the sector’s deepening woes, which include delayed payments to farmers and a sharp drop in output.
The Numbers Tell a Troubling Story
Ghana’s cocoa production has fallen far below its historical average of 800,000 tonnes per season. After a bumper crop of over 1 million tonnes in 2020/2021, the trajectory has been sharply downward. For the 2024/2025 season, COCOBOD has projected harvests will likely not exceed 600,000 tonnes—a far cry from initial forecasts.
In a press conference on February 6, 2026, COCOBOD Managing Director Randy Abbey revealed a stark market reality: although the Board has sold more than 530,000 tonnes for the current season, approximately 50,000 tonnes remain unsold with farmers. The culprit, he explained, is Ghana’s uncompetitive farmgate price.
“The situation is where we have beans, but they are not buying; the beans are too expensive,” Abbey stated, assuring that efforts are underway to resolve delayed payments.
COCOBOD has attributed the production slump to multiple interconnected factors: aging plantations, the devastating spread of Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease, the illegal mining crisis known locally as galamsey which destroys farmland, cross-border smuggling, and increasingly erratic weather patterns linked to climate change.
The Challengers Are Gaining Ground
As Ghana struggles, competitors are seizing the moment.
Ecuador is emerging as the most immediate threat. The South American nation is projected to produce more than 650,000 tonnes in the 2025/2026 season, with ambitions to reach 800,000 tonnes by the end of the decade. Ecuador’s advantages are significant: its yields average about 800 kilograms per hectare, nearly double West Africa’s typical output of under 500 kilograms. Crucially, Ecuadorian farmers receive roughly 90% of the world market price, compared to the 60–70% earned by their Ghanaian and Ivorian counterparts.
Across the Atlantic, Indonesia, currently the world’s third-largest producer, is steadily climbing. The country recorded 641,741 tonnes in 2023 and dominates the Southeast Asian cocoa market. Global supply forecasts suggest Indonesian output could grow by roughly 30% to around 836,000 tonnes by 2026, fueled by government programs and private initiatives like Cocoa Life that are improving fermentation consistency and farm yields.
Closer to home, Nigeria—currently ranked fourth globally—has signaled clear ambitions. The country aims to raise production from about 340,000 tonnes to 500,000 tonnes, targeting roughly 6.5% of global supply. While structural challenges persist, Nigeria’s potential to leverage year-round irrigation and state support makes it a credible contender to challenge Ghana’s position.
A Sector at a Crossroads
The stakes could not be higher. Cocoa supports more than 800,000 farming households in Ghana and remains a vital source of foreign exchange. Losing the second-place ranking would be more than a symbolic blow; it would signal a profound loss of competitiveness in a market Ghana has long dominated.
The global market context adds another layer of urgency. As of February 12, 2026, cocoa futures have corrected from the historic peaks of 2024 but remain elevated, trading around the mid‑$3,700s per tonne. This volatility underscores the need for stability.
On February 13, 2026, a United Nations Cocoa Conference is set to inaugurate a new International Cocoa Agreement, aimed at promoting sustainability and ensuring price stability across the sector. Ghana’s ability to navigate this complex landscape—and to implement effective domestic reforms—will be critical.
The Path Forward
Ghana’s response to this existential challenge will determine whether it retains its place among cocoa’s elite. The emergency Cabinet meeting signals that the government is treating the crisis with the urgency it deserves. Reforms at COCOBOD, addressing the financial liquidity that has delayed farmer payments, and tackling the illegal mining destroying farmlands are all essential steps.
But time is not on Ghana’s side. As Ecuador refines its high-yield model, as Indonesia scales up production, and as Nigeria eyes a greater share of the market, the margin for error narrows. The world’s chocolate lovers may not notice which country supplies their beans. But for Ghana’s economy, its farmers, and its national pride, the race to hold onto second place is one it cannot afford to lose.
Business
From Raw Minerals to Luxury Brand: Ghana’s Gold Value-Addition Strategy Gains Global Momentum with UK Showroom
Ghana’s ambition to transform its gold sector from a raw mineral exporter into a competitive player in the global luxury jewelry market has received a significant boost, with indigenous company GOLDBOD Jewellery setting its sights on establishing a flagship showroom in the United Kingdom.
The move, which aligns with the government’s broader strategy of increasing value addition within the gold sector, reflects Ghana’s determination to maximize returns from its mineral resources through local beneficiation, manufacturing and branding initiatives designed to generate employment and enhance export earnings.
Chief Executive Officer of GOLDBOD Jewellery, Gertrude Emefa Donkor, recently paid a courtesy call on Ghana’s High Commissioner to the United Kingdom, Sabah Zita Benson, to present the company’s vision of showcasing premium jewelry and investment-grade gold products crafted from responsibly sourced Ghanaian gold.

During the discussions, Miss Donkor highlighted the growing demand for the company’s innovative Gold Tablet, revealing that the product sold out during this year’s Ghana Party in the Park in London, one of the largest annual gatherings of the Ghanaian diaspora in Europe. She noted that the overwhelming patronage reflects growing confidence among diaspora communities and international consumers in authenticated Ghanaian gold products.
The planned expansion comes as Ghana, Africa’s leading gold producer, intensifies efforts to move beyond the export of raw minerals and establish a reputation as a trusted source of responsibly produced, value-added gold products.
The strategy is central to the country’s industrialization agenda, which seeks to create jobs, boost foreign exchange earnings and reduce dependence on primary commodity exports.
High Commissioner Benson reaffirmed the Mission’s commitment to supporting Made-in-Ghana products in the UK market, noting that the High Commission continues to collaborate with relevant public institutions, private sector stakeholders and business associations to create opportunities for Ghanaian enterprises seeking to expand internationally.

She expressed optimism that the proposed showroom would not only showcase the quality and craftsmanship of Ghanaian jewelry but also reinforce Ghana’s reputation as a trusted source of responsibly produced gold products. She added that initiatives of this nature complement the government’s broader agenda of leveraging trade, investment and economic diplomacy to promote sustainable national development.
The engagement underscores the evolving role of Ghana’s diplomatic missions in advancing economic diplomacy by facilitating market access for Ghanaian businesses and strengthening commercial partnerships abroad. The United Kingdom remains one of Ghana’s key trading partners and a strategic destination for Ghanaian exports, investment and diaspora engagement.
As Africa’s leading gold producer, Ghana has long been a major supplier of raw gold to international markets. However, successive governments have recognised that real economic transformation lies in retaining more value from the mineral through local processing, manufacturing and branding. GOLDBOD Jewellery’s UK expansion represents a tangible example of this vision taking shape on the global stage.

Industry observers note that the success of such initiatives could encourage more Ghanaian companies to explore international markets, particularly in sectors where the country holds a comparative advantage. The diaspora market, in particular, presents a significant opportunity for Ghanaian brands seeking to build consumer confidence and establish a foothold in competitive markets.
The meeting between Miss Donkor and High Commissioner Benson reflects growing collaboration between Ghana’s diplomatic missions and indigenous businesses as the country seeks to strengthen its presence in international markets while advancing industrialization, export diversification and value addition within the mining sector.
With the proposed showroom in the United Kingdom, GOLDBOD Jewellery is positioning itself as a flagship brand for Ghanaian gold, demonstrating that African products can compete at the highest levels of the global luxury market.
The move signals a new chapter in Ghana’s economic story, one in which the nation’s natural resources are transformed into globally recognised brands that tell the story of Ghanaian craftsmanship, quality and innovation.
Business
Ghana Beats the Odds: IMF Approves Final Review, Offering Blueprint for Africa’s Debt-Ridden Economies
Three years after defaulting on its debt, Ghana formally exits the IMF bailout program with a $318 million final disbursement—and a new reform framework that could show other distressed African nations the way forward
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund on Monday approved Ghana’s sixth and final review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program, formally concluding the country’s three-year, $3 billion bailout arrangement and unlocking a final disbursement of approximately $318 million.
The Board also approved Ghana’s request for a 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), a non-financing arrangement that will guide the country’s economic reforms now that the bailout has ended.
The approval marks the culmination of one of the most dramatic economic turnarounds in recent African history—a recovery that began in the depths of crisis in late 2022, when Ghana defaulted on most of its external debt, inflation topped 54%, and the cedi was in free fall.
“Ghana’s ECF-supported economic program has delivered substantial stabilization gains,” the IMF said in a May statement after reaching a staff-level agreement with the government. “Inflation has declined rapidly, international reserves have been rebuilt, and confidence in the cedi has improved.”
From Default to Credibility

Ghana entered the 36-month ECF arrangement in May 2023 with access to about $3 billion to help restore macroeconomic stability, implement fiscal reforms, and support the country’s debt restructuring program. At the time, the country was in the throes of its worst economic crisis in a generation.
The turnaround has been striking. Inflation has plunged from 54% in December 2022 to just 5.3% in June 2026. Gross international reserves have reached an all-time high of approximately $14.5 billion as of February 2026, providing nearly six months of import cover. The public debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen sharply from a peak of over 80% to 45% by June 2026.
Perhaps most significantly, Ghana’s sovereign credit ratings have improved from restricted default—”junk status”—to ‘B’ with a positive outlook, representing five distinct rating level upgrades.
“Every quantitative performance criterion, but one, set for the final review has been met,” Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson told Parliament while presenting the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review. He noted that Ghana achieved 10 out of 11 quantitative targets and 8 out of 10 structural benchmarks.
A Blueprint for Africa
For other African nations struggling with debt distress—including Zambia, Ethiopia, and Kenya—Ghana’s trajectory offers a potential roadmap. The country’s success demonstrates that aggressive fiscal consolidation, coupled with credible IMF engagement and good-faith debt restructuring, can restore market confidence within a relatively short timeframe.
The PCI framework that Ghana is now entering is particularly instructive. Unlike the ECF, the PCI does not provide direct funding. Instead, it offers closer policy engagement with the IMF and signals a country’s commitment to reforms, helping to strengthen investor confidence and attract support from development partners.
“Completing the ECF does not mean Ghana walks away from the IMF,” Forson explained. “It means Ghana changes the nature of the relationship.”
The new program will focus on six priority areas: growth-friendly fiscal consolidation, debt sustainability, fiscal transparency and governance, stronger monetary and exchange rate policy frameworks, financial sector stability, and economic diversification.
Forson described the PCI as “a structured, internationally monitored platform through which Ghana commits to a specific set of macroeconomic and structural reform policies, submits to regular independent review, and signals to the world that the discipline of the past eighteen months is not a temporary posture adopted under crisis conditions. It is a permanent feature of how this country will be governed.”
The Work Isn’t Over
Despite the celebration, the IMF has made clear that Ghana’s reform agenda is far from complete. The Fund has urged the government to press ahead with reforms in the energy sector, particularly efforts to improve efficiency at the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG) through private sector participation.
“Priority should be given to tackling distribution and collection losses at ECG, including advancing private sector participation in the distribution segment,” the IMF stated.
The government has indicated that private sector participation in ECG is expected to commence by early 2027.
The PCI is also designed to help Ghana maintain macroeconomic stability, build resilience against external shocks, address structural imbalances, and support sustainable economic growth. With the global environment remaining uncertain—including potential spillovers from conflicts and volatile commodity prices—sustaining the reform momentum will be critical.
A New Chapter
Monday’s approval formally concludes Ghana’s 16th IMF program since independence. For a country that was written off by many international investors just three years ago, the milestone represents a remarkable redemption story.
“This milestone reflects improved fiscal performance, normalized relations with global creditors, and renewed market confidence,” said Felix Kwakye Ofosu, Minister of State for Government Communications.
Finance Minister Forson has already declared that Ghana does not expect to seek another IMF bailout in the foreseeable future. The country now aims to achieve “Investment Grade” status, a goal that would further lower borrowing costs and unlock long-term institutional investment for critical infrastructure.
For now, however, the immediate priority is clear: cement the gains, stay the course, and prove that Ghana’s recovery is not just a temporary reprieve—but a permanent transformation.
Business
Ghana Loses $16.5 Billion As Crude Oil Production Collapses by 48% – IES Report
Ghana has lost more than US$16.5 billion in potential gross oil revenue over the past six years as crude oil production plummeted by nearly half from its 2019 peak, according to a devastating new report by the prominent Institute for Energy Security (IES).
The analysis, authored by energy experts Smith Prosper Boahene and Prince Lumor, paints a grim picture of a sector in freefall.
Crude oil output crashed from 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to just 37.30 million barrels in 2025, a staggering decline of almost 48 percent. The Energy Commission projects production will fall further to 34.83 million barrels in 2026, extending the downward trajectory into a seventh consecutive year.
The production collapse has delivered a hammer blow to government finances. Total petroleum receipts nosedived by 43.27 percent, from US$1.36 billion in 2024 to US$770.27 million in 2025. The decline was driven by both lower production volumes and a fall in the average realised crude oil price from US$86.12 to US$74.93 per barrel.
The first half of 2025 alone told a harrowing story: crude oil production declined by 26 percent year-on-year to 18.42 million barrels, while petroleum receipts collapsed from US$840 million to US$370 million.
IES described the prolonged downturn as “not a routine cyclical dip” but a structural crisis born of deep-rooted operational and policy failures.
“The decline is not attributable to one shock, but to several structural, operational, and policy failures compounding over an unusually long period,” the report stated.
Using an “illustrative counterfactual” model, IES projected a scenario in which Ghana maintained a modest annual production growth rate of three percent through sustained drilling, new petroleum agreements and improved reservoir management. Under that scenario, cumulative production would have exceeded actual output by approximately 221 million barrels—a missed opportunity that translates directly into the US$16.5 billion revenue hole.
Petroleum revenue contributes about 10 percent of total government income and supports critical public infrastructure and national development programmes. The sustained collapse therefore has far-reaching implications for Ghana’s fiscal stability, affecting everything from road construction to healthcare funding.
The report identified natural depletion of mature oil fields, insufficient replacement reserves and the failure to sign new petroleum agreements since 2018 as the principal causes. Ghana’s oil production remains dangerously concentrated in just three offshore fields—Jubilee, TEN and Sankofa Gye Nyame. Although Jubilee remained the country’s largest producing field in 2025 with 22.2 million barrels, it also recorded the sharpest year-on-year decline of more than 30 percent, partly due to a planned production shutdown between March 26 and April 8.
IES noted that the temporary production increase recorded in 2024 following drilling under the Jubilee South East project demonstrated that targeted investment can slow production decline. The report also clarified that while COVID-19 disruptions worsened the downturn in 2021, the decline had already begun before the pandemic.
“COVID-19 aggravated an already-declining trend rather than starting it,” the report noted.
Financial economist Professor Lord Mensah has attributed the sharp decline in petroleum revenues to inconsistent fiscal and investment policies, urging government to channel available oil revenues into infrastructure development, agriculture and export-led economic diversification.
IES concluded that Ghana’s prolonged decline in oil production requires urgent policy action.
“Ghana’s six consecutive years of crude oil production decline are far more than a cyclical fluctuation. The data show a structural crisis… Reversing it will require new licensing, accelerated investment, improved operational efficiency, strengthened institutional capacity, and diversified revenue management, implemented with the urgency the data clearly demonstrate is overdue,” the report said.
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