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How Maduro’s capture went down – a military strategist explains what goes into a successful special op

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R. Evan Ellis, The Center for Strategic and International Studies, surmises in this article that the predawn seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3, 2026, was a complicated affair. It was also, operationally, a resounding success for the U.S. military.

Operation Absolute Resolve achieved its objective of seizing Maduro through a mix of extensive planning, intelligence and timing. R. Evan Ellis, a military strategist and former Latin America policy adviser to the U.S. State Department, walked The Conversation through what is publicly known about the planning and execution of the raid.

How long would this op have been in the works?

U.S. military fighter jets sit on the tarmac at José Aponte de la Torre Airport in Puerto Rico, on Jan. 3, 2026. Miguel J. Rodriguez Carrillo / AFP via Getty Images

Operation Absolute Resolve was some months in the planning, as the Pentagon acknowledged in its briefing on Jan. 3. My presumption is that from the beginning of the U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean and the establishment of Joint Task Force Southern Spear in the fall, military planners were developing options for the president to capture or eliminate Maduro and other key Chavista leadership, should coercive efforts at persuading a change in the Venezuelan situation fail.

A man in a blindfold holds a bottle of water.
An image of a captured Nicolás Maduro released by President Donald Trump on social media. Truth Social

Prior to Southern Spear, U.S. military activities in the region were directly overseen by Southern Command – the part of the Department of Defense responsible for Central America, South America and most of the Caribbean. But establishing a dedicated joint task force in October 2025 helped facilitate the coordination of a large operation, like the one conducted to seize Maduro.

Planning for the Jan. 3 operation likely became more detailed and realistic as the administration settled on a concrete set of options. U.S. forces practiced the raid on a replica of the presidential compound. “They actually built a house which was identical to the one they went into with all the same, all that steel all over the place,” President Donald Trump told “Fox & Friends Weekend.”

Why did the US choose to act now?

The buildup had been going on for months, and the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford in November was a key milestone. That gave the U.S. the capability to launch a high volume of attacks against land targets and added to the already huge array of American military hardware stationed in the Caribbean.

It joined an Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group, which included a helicopter dock ship and two landing platform vessels. An additional six destroyers and two cruisers were stationed in the region with the capability of launching hundreds of missiles for both land attack and air defense, as well as a special operations mother ship.

Trump’s authorization of CIA operations in Venezuela was probably also a key factor. It is likely that individuals inside Venezuela played invaluable roles not only in obtaining intelligence, but also in cooperating with key people in Maduro’s military and government to make sure they did – or did not do – certain things at key moments during the Jan. 3 operation.

With the complex array of plans and preparations in place by December, the U.S. military was likely ready to execute, but it had to wait for opportune conditions to maximize the probability of success.

What constitutes the opportune moment?

There are arguably three things needed for the opportune moment: good intelligence, the establishment of reliable cooperation arrangements on the ground, and favorable tactical conditions.

Intel would have been crucial. Trump acknowledged his authorization of covert CIA operations in Venezuela in October, and evidently, by the end of the year, analysts had gathered the information needed to make this operation go smoothly. The intelligence would have had to include knowing exactly where Maduro would be at the time of the operation, and the situation around him.

Over the past few months, according to media reporting, the intelligence community had agents on the ground in Venezuela, likely having conversations with people in the military, the Chavista leadership and beyond, who had crucial information or whose behavior was relevant to different parts of the operation – such as perhaps shutting down a system, standing down a military unit or being absent from a post at a key moment. A report from The New York Times indicates that the U.S. had a human source close to Maduro who was able to provide details of his day-to-day life, down to what he ate.

The more tactical conditions that were needed for the opportune moment involved things like the weather – you didn’t want storms or high winds or cloud cover that would put U.S. aircraft in danger as they flew in some very treacherous low-level routes through the mountains that separate Fort Tiun – the military compound in Caracas where Maduro was captured – from the coast.

How did the operation unfold?

Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has given some details about how the plan was executed.

We know the U.S. launched aircraft from multiple sites – the operation involved at least 20 different launch sites for 150 planes and helicopters. These would have involved aircraft for jamming operations, some surveillance, fighter jets to strike targets, and some to provide an escort for the helicopters bringing in a special forces unit and members of the FBI.

A cloud of black smoke is seen above a building.
Smoke is seen billowing above the Port of La Guaira on Jan. 3, 2026, in Venezuela. Jesus Vargas/Getty Images

As an integral part of the operation, the U.S. carried out a series of cyber activities that may have played a role in undermining not only Venezuela’s defense systems, but also its understanding of what was going on. Although the nature of U.S. cyber activities is only speculation here, a coherent, alerted Venezuelan command and control system could have cost the lives of U.S. force members and given Maduro time to seal himself in his safe room, creating a problem – albeit not an insurmountable one – for U.S. forces.

There was also, according to Trump, a U.S.-generated interruption to some part of the power grid. In addition, it appears that there may have been diversionary strikes in other parts of the country to give a false impression to the Venezuelan military that U.S. military activity was directed toward some other, lesser land target, as had recently been the case.

U.S. aircraft then basically disabled Venezuelan air defenses.

As U.S. rotary wing and other assets converged on the target in Caracas – with cover from some of the most capable fighters in the U.S. inventory, including F-35s and F-22s, as well as F-18s – other U.S. assets decimated the air defense and other threats in the area.

It would be logical if elite members of the U.S. 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment were used in the approach to the compound in Caracas. Their skills would have been required if, as I presume, they came in via the canyon route that separates Caracas from the coast. I have driven the road through those mountains, and it is treacherous – especially for an aircraft at low altitude.

Once the team landed, it would have have taken a matter of minutes to infiltrate the compound where Maduro was.

Any luck involved?

According to Trump, the U.S. team grabbed Maduro just as he was trying to get into his steel vault safe room.

“He didn’t get that space closed. He was trying to get into it, but he got bum-rushed right so fast that he didn’t get into that,” the U.S. president told Fox & Friends Weekend.

Although the U.S. was reportedly fully prepared for that eventuality, with high-power torches to cut him out, that delay could have cost time and possibly lives.

It was thus critical to the U.S. mission that forces were able to enter the facility, reach and secure Maduro and his wife in a minimal amount of time.

R. Evan Ellis, Senior Associate, Americas Program, The Center for Strategic and International Studies

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinion

Surrogacy in Ghana: Legal parenthood, registration, and the rights of the surrogate

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Ghana’s legal framework for surrogacy has evolved with the passage of the Registration of Births and Deaths Act, 2020 (Act 1027), which, for the first time, provides statutory recognition and a mechanism, through High Court parental orders, for regularizing parentage in assisted reproductive arrangements. However, in this article by Joseph Ackah-Blay argues that while this represents progress, Ghana still lacks a coherent and comprehensive legal regime for surrogacy.


Surrogacy in Ghana: Legal parenthood, registration, and the rights of the surrogate

By Joseph Ackah-Blay, Esq.

Surrogacy is no longer a novelty in Ghana. More families are turning to it. More clinics are facilitating it. More lawyers are being asked to structure it. The law, for its part, has started to respond. But only just. It is no longer entirely correct to say Ghana has no law on surrogacy. That position, while once accurate, no longer reflects the statutory landscape. Yet it would be equally wrong to suggest that Ghana now has a coherent and comprehensive legal regime governing assisted reproduction. It does not. What we have instead is something in between: statutory recognition without full regulation; legislative movement without complete legislative architecture.

That framework is found principally in the Registration of Births and Deaths Act, 2020 (Act 1027). Through it, Parliament has for the first time given express statutory recognition to assisted reproductive births and created a mechanism through which parentage arising from surrogacy may be regularised. That is progress. But progress and completion are not the same thing.

The Constitutional Framework

The 1992 Constitution says nothing directly about surrogacy. That is hardly surprising. The Constitution predates the modern fertility industry and was never drafted with assisted reproductive technology in mind. Still, constitutional principles remain relevant.

Article 15(1) provides that: “The dignity of all persons shall be inviolable.”

That matters. It places constitutional limits on how surrogate mothers may be treated, what may be demanded of them, and how far contractual arrangements may go. The Constitution also speaks to the welfare of children. Article 28(1)(a) requires legislative protection for children, while section 2 of the Children’s Act, 1998 (Act 560) reiterates the settled principle that the best interests of the child shall be paramount in any matter concerning a child. These principles will almost certainly frame any judicial consideration of a surrogacy dispute if and when one comes before the courts.

What the Law Now Provides

The centrepiece of Ghana’s present surrogacy framework is section 22 of Act 1027. It creates a statutory process through which intended parents and surrogate mothers may apply to the High Court for orders relating to legal parentage in assisted reproductive arrangements. The provision contemplates both pre-birth and post-birth applications.

Under section 22(2), an intended parent may apply within twelve weeks after the introduction of the embryo or gamete into the surrogate for what is, in substance, a pre-birth parental order. If satisfied as to the evidence of parentage and the existence of the surrogacy arrangement, the High Court may direct that the intended parent, the surrogate, or both be named as the legal parent or parents of the child. This requirement kicks in if the birth occurs within twenty-eight weeks of the order.

Where no such order is obtained before birth, the Act permits a further application after birth for a parental or substitute parentage order, upon which the Court may direct the registration or re-registration of the child’s birth accordingly. This post-birth order must be requested for earlier than twenty-eight days after birth and not later than six months after birth. Such an order is treated in the form of an adoption proceeding. An important point worth noting is that where a substitute parentage order is granted, the original birth record is struck out, sealed and kept confidential, and the child gains a right to access it at the age of twenty-one.

Without such an order, the default statutory position is plain enough: the woman who gives birth is to be registered as the mother of the child. That is no small development. It is the first serious legislative acknowledgment that surrogacy exists within Ghanaian family life and requires legal accommodation. But this acknowledgment is not clarity. The courts have not yet had much opportunity to develop jurisprudence on section 22. How precisely the provision will operate in contested or difficult cases remains to be seen.

The Contract Matters

Surrogacy arrangements are typically reduced into writing between intended parents and the surrogate. That is prudent. Indeed, it is essential. Such agreements usually address parentage, medical care, compensation, confidentiality, and consent to subsequent legal processes. Still, a surrogacy agreement should not be mistaken for a complete legal solution. It may record intention. It may regulate expectations. It may provide evidence. But no Ghanaian statute presently provides that such an agreement, by itself, conclusively determines legal parentage. Nor have the courts definitively pronounced on the extent to which such agreements may be enforced in the event of dispute. The contract is important. It simply is not everything.

When the Surrogate Is Married

Things become more complicated where the surrogate is married. Under section 32 of the Evidence Act, 1975 (N.R.C.D. 323), a child born during a marriage is presumed to be the child of the husband of the mother. The presumption is rebuttable. But unless rebutted, it remains the legal starting point. Its practical implication is obvious enough: where a married surrogate carries a child, her husband may presumptively occupy the position of legal father unless the appropriate legal and evidential steps are taken to establish otherwise. That is one reason lawyers may advise on the husband’s participation in the relevant documentation and legal process where applicable.

What of Adoption?

Before Act 1027, adoption was commonly used in practice to regularize parentage after surrogacy arrangements. Whether that remains necessary in every case is no longer entirely clear. Section 22 of ACT 1027 has changed the landscape. To what extent it has displaced adoption as the principal route to legal parenthood in surrogacy matters is a question the courts are yet to answer with any real precision. For now, the relationship between the parental-order mechanism under Act 1027 and the adoption framework under the Children’s Act remains a developing one.

The Surrogate Is Not Merely a Vessel

In public discourse, discussions of surrogacy often focus almost entirely on intended parents. The surrogate is treated as incidental to the arrangement. Legally, she is not. She remains a rights-bearing actor throughout the process. She retains bodily autonomy. No law authorises intended parents to compel her to undergo treatment, submit to procedures, or make reproductive decisions against her will. She retains dignity protections under Article 15(1). And until the statutory process under Act 1027 is completed, the precise contours of her legal position remain, in several respects, underdeveloped in Ghanaian jurisprudence. That uncertainty is not merely theoretical. It has practical implications for everyone involved.

Outstanding Work

Act 1027 is a meaningful beginning. It is not a finished framework. Other jurisdictions have gone considerably further. South Africa, for example, requires judicial confirmation of surrogate motherhood agreements before conception under Chapter 19 of its Children’s Act 38 of 2005.

The United Kingdom provides a dedicated parental-order regime under section 54 of the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Act 2008. Ghana, by contrast, still lacks a dedicated assisted reproduction statute, detailed procedural rules for surrogacy applications, and developed jurisprudence on the operation of its existing provisions.

The law has begun to speak. It has not yet said enough.

Conclusion

Surrogacy now sits within Ghana’s statutory framework. That much is clear. What remains less clear is how far that framework goes, how the courts will interpret it, and whether it is sufficient for the realities of a growing assisted reproduction industry. Act 1027 has moved the law forward. It has not completed the journey. Until the courts provide fuller guidance or Parliament enacts a more comprehensive legislative scheme, surrogacy in Ghana will remain an area of legal recognition attended by legal uncertainty. And where the law is uncertain, caution is not optional. It is essential.


Joseph Ackah-Blay is an Associate at Renaissance Law Chambers, where he advises on corporate, commercial, regulatory, IT law and private legal matters. He writes generally on law, governance, and emerging legal issues. He holds a B.A., LL.B and QCL. He can be reached at j.ackahblay74@gmail.com

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Perspectives

Leased Sovereignty: Ghana, the EU, Ukraine and the Politics of Security Dependency

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In March 2026, Ghana became the first African nation to sign a Security and Defence Partnership (SDP) with the European Union, while simultaneously negotiating a Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) with Ukraine.

This strategicpolicy analysis report by the renowned security expertCol. Festus Aboagye (retd) examines both agreements, arguing that the central question is not whether Ghana should have signed them, the strategic logic is compelling, but whether Ghana has the institutional architecture to translate external partnerships into sovereign capability rather than structural dependency.

Col. Festus Aboagye (retd)

The report introduces the concept of “leased sovereignty” to describe a condition in which a state formally owns military capabilities but does not control them, because maintenance, software architecture, data infrastructure, and supply chains all remain with the provider.

Drawing on documentary analysis of primary official sources, secondary institutional research, and forthcoming primary research from a 15‑state African study on data sovereignty in third‑party defence grants, the analysis identifies five structural risks: interoperability fragmentation, border surveillance governance gaps, narrative incoherence between Ghana’s pan‑African moral leadership and its new EU security role, intelligence data sovereignty exposure, and supply‑chain fragility inherent in a technology relationship with a nation at active war.

The report concludes with a three‑horizon implementation roadmap sequencing the institutional, legal, and operational measures required to convert dependency into enduring national capability.

It argues that Ghana’s 2026 agreements are a test case for whether an African middle power can engage Global North security frameworks on its own terms—acquiring capability without conceding control, anchoring regional stability without subordinating sovereignty, and transforming a bilateral diplomatic achievement into a continental governance precedent.

Click here to access the full 24-page report.

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Opinion

Between Hope and Exploitation: The hidden truth about migration in a globalized world

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In this opinion analysis, writer Stephen Armah Quaye examines the hidden crisis of modern migration, arguing that the pursuit of a better life too often becomes a trap of exploitation and modern-day slavery. Quaye calls for a shift in conversation from borders and legality toward education, legal pathways, victim protection, and accurate information-sharing among governments, communities, and potential migrants. The central question, he concludes, is not whether people will move, but whether they will move safely or be moved into danger.


Between Hope and Exploitation: The hidden truth about migration in a globalized world

By Stephen Armah Quaye

When the journey for a better life becomes a trap, migration stops being a dream and starts becoming a dangerous gamble.

Every day, headlines emerge about immigration fraudsters, human traffickers, and organised networks exploiting desperate migrants. Promises are made of opportunity, safety, and prosperity in countries like the United States and Canada. But for many, those promises collapse into harsh realities of exploitation, fear, and in some cases, modern-day slavery hidden in plain sight.

It is a difficult truth many are reluctant to confront.

While law enforcement agencies continue to arrest and prosecute traffickers, some receiving life sentences,s the deeper crisis persists. Victims are rescued, yes, but countless others remain trapped in silence, bound not by chains but by fear, debt, and manipulation. This is the face of modern trafficking,g subtle, psychological, and often invisible.
Contrary to popular belief, slavery did not disappear with history. It evolved.

According to insights from the Civil Rights Unit of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, coercion today is rarely physical. Victims are controlled emotionally, psychologically, and financially. Their documents may be seized, their movements restricted, and their voices silenced through threats both real and implied. The result is a system of control just as powerful as chains, but far less visible.

And the scale of the problem? No one truly knows.

Migration itself is not the enemy. In fact, it is one of the oldest human stories ever told. From biblical accounts where figures like Abraham journeyed to unknown lands, and Moses led a people to freedom, om to modern economic migration, movement has always been part of human survival and progress.

Even Jesus Christ, as a child, was taken by his parents to Egypt to escape danger. Migration, therefore, is not new. What has changed is the complexity and the risks.
According to the International Organisation for Migration, global migration continues to rise, driven by economic need, conflict, environmental pressures, and the search for opportunity. While earlier reports estimated over 244 million international migrants, more recent trends suggest that number has grown significantly, reflecting an increasingly interconnected world.
Yet behind the statistics are real human stories.

People leave their homes not because they want to but because they feel they have no choice. Poverty, unemployment, war, political instability, and environmental disasters push them out. At the same time, the promise of better jobs, education, safety, and stability pulls them toward developed nations.

These are known as push and pull factors, the forces that shape migration decisions. Organisations like OneAmerica emphasise that migration is rarely a simple decision. It is often a calculated risk taken under pressure. Similarly, migration advisory groups point out that while some migrants move voluntarily, many are forced, driven by circumstances beyond their control.

But here lies the danger.

When desperation meets opportunity without proper information or legal pathways, exploitation thrives. Unscrupulous agents and trafficking networks position themselves as “helpers,” offering shortcuts through immigration systems. They promise visas, jobs, and safe passage. Instead, many migrants find themselves trapped working under abusive conditions, living in fear of deportation, and stripped of their rights.

This is where migration becomes a crisis.

The law attempts to respond, but it is not always straightforward. International migration law, as explained by global frameworks, is not governed by a single unified system. Instead, it is a complex web of treaties, agreements, and national policies that vary from country to country. This makes enforcement difficult and creates loopholes that traffickers exploit.

At the same time, destination countries like Canada and the United States continue to strengthen border controls and immigration systems. While these measures are designed to protect national security and regulate entry, they can also unintentionally push vulnerable migrants toward illegal routes where risks are far greater.

So, the question must be asked: where do you stand?
Are you being pushed by hardship, or pulled by opportunity? And more importantly, are you informed enough to make that journey safely?
Migration, at its core, is neither good nor bad. It is a reality of human existence. But illegal migration, especially when driven by misinformation and desperation,n can lead to devastating consequences.

The conversation must shift.

Instead of viewing migration solely through the lens of borders and legality, there must be a greater focus on education, awareness, and protection. Potential migrants must understand the risks, know their rights, and seek legal pathways. Governments must strengthen not only enforcement, but also support systems for victims. And communities both at home and abroad must play a role in sharing accurate information.

Because behind every migration story is a human life.
A dream. A sacrifice. A risk.
And sometimes, a regret.

Migration will continue as it always has. But whether it becomes a story of success or suffering depends on the choices made before the journey begins.
The real question is not whether people will move.
It is whether they will move safely or be moved into danger.

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